What a wonderful day around the area as temperatures are in the lower 80s now and skies are perfectly clear. This great weather, of course, is in contrast to what the folks in the SE part and NE part of the country are dealing with and watching as I type. Of course Irene will be the focus of this weather blog.

I haven't been overly impressed later this AM and PM with the "look" of Irene. While radar is showing the eye of the storm...recon reports indicate that the eye is ragged and "open" across the southern and western parts. This tells me that for whatever reason, Irene is not as "healthy" now as it was yesterday at about this time. Recon reports also so the winds in the 90-105 mph range and have been doing so for the last several flights. The eye of the storm, which was a tight 15 miles across has broadened to 35 miles across which is NOT a sign of a healthy hurricane...which is a good thing for the Eastern Seaboard. Whether the interaction with Andros Island in the Bahamas or perhaps some weak shear and/or perhaps even some dry air circulating into the storm...something is and has been going on today with the "look" of the storm in my opinion.

Regardless of all that, the storm is a large one and the wind field last night was expanding in scope, perhaps not intensity but size and width. This is what I'm talking about...notice the wind speeds around the storm...this from boatus.com

Click on that graphic to make it more readable. The satellite photo this afternoon shows that this hurricane is definitely eastern oriented...

The "official" forecast track hasn't really wavered that much, perhaps though leaning back towards the west over the past 24 hours or so...

The NE part of the country is watching this like a hawk, because this is becoming more and more like yet another billion $ weather event, and the metropolis's back east may really bear the brunt of the flooding and wave action along the coastline. Rainfall itself may be astounding...I got up to about the 10" contour and stopped counting...

In terms of model forecasts...they still seem to be making another landfall point being somewhere along Long Island, NY...or perhaps even hugging the coastline up to NYC from the Delmarva.

This brings into play the MAJOR issue of flooding for the NY area. In Philadelphia, they just broke their August rainfall record with over 13". This without even a single drop of rainfall from Irene. Mayor Bloomberg of NY will decide tomorrow whether or not to start evacuations from what is referred to as Zone A, those most subject to flooding from any urricane...I like to look at this map to get an idea where they're thinking about evacuating. The city breaks down their evacuations into zones...

• Residents in Zone A face the highest risk of flooding from a hurricane's storm surge. Zone A includes all low-lying coastal areas and other areas that could experience storm surge in ANY hurricane that makes landfall close to New York City.
• Residents in Zone B may experience storm surge flooding from a MODERATE (Category 2 or higher) hurricane.
• Residents in Zone C may experience storm surge flooding from a MAJOR hurricane (Category 3 & 4) making landfall just south of New York City. A major hurricane is unlikely in New York City, but not impossible.

Here is a timely article about how vulnerable NYC is to something like this. Think about the flooding, all the underground stuff (subways) etc that would be impacted by the water. It really is amazing the potential disaster that may unfold. Obviously a lot can change, Mainly the question I have is how strong will this thing really be, in terms of wind as it gets up there. That is connected to the exact track it takes, farther inland and the wind aspect is reduced, however the rain amounts would still be extreme unless the storms speed increases dramatically which isn't expected till it passes through New England. The latest EURO came in with an initial landfall near Morehead City, NC...then to near Plymouth, NC...then right up the coastline towards Atlantic City, NJ, then weakening as it passes over NYC. This track, should it verify would be really horrific assuming the storm maintains CAT 1 status as it moves northwards. Also there has to be consideration for all the high rise buildings, and the potential for glass breakage. The farther up you go the less friction there is and the higher the likelyhood of building damage. Remember Katrina back in '05 and the hotel that was hit by the winds...here is a picture to jog your memory...

Something like this MAY occur in the NYC area, depending on the intensity of the winds with the track portrayed by the EURO. Farther east and the winds won't be as severe...still in the 50-70 MPH range.

Expect the entire NE part of the country closest to the coastline to close down this weekend.

Joe