Monday, August 15, 2011

Well, I'm not totally surprised that it rained today, I'm rather shocked that it has persisted as long as it's done so and also that it turned into a great soaking rain for the metro as well as others in NE KS and far W MO...

Last night I thought the best chance of something like this happening was to the NW of C...even showed a map highlighting the area I thought was most vulnerable to something like what happened today.. That map did not include the metro...I only had a 20-30% chance of some rain today. Timed out the rain perfectly but again not a very good forecast for the KC area at all. Rainfall amounts in the region were in the neighborhood of .25 to .75" or so...with a few areas closing in on 1"+. Here is a look at the doppler estimates from the NWS radar in Topeka...I'm still hesitant to show the radar data for indicated totals from Pleasant Hill because I think it's still running to high...


Ground truth is next...several views for you through John, Jackson and Platte Counties...


Now let's move a bit farther northwards...


From the airports @ 1PM here are the totals...

KCI: .61"
Downtown: .47"
Olathe: .68"
Gardner: .35"
Lawrence: .46"
Topeka: .74:
Lees Summit: .35"
Sedalia: Trace

A great soaking rainfall...

We'll continue to have opportunities almost all week long. I don't think it will rain every day though, but in this pesky NW flow, any little disturbance will create rainfall and the air will be getting more saturated over the next few days. We never really get totally capped either...so it's going to be a tricky forecast for the next 5 days or so...

The heat will also be lingering to the south, although not to the extreme as previous weeks, it's still there and will creep farther northwards as the week moves along. Notice the temperatures tomorrow towards southern KS...





Now take a look at Wednesday...




Again notice where the heat is...just across S KS and OK...sitting there. I still think we'll nibble one more time into that airmass for a few days but for the time being it looks like the persistent ridge/dome of hot air will gradually push back out through the Rockies and Western 1/3rd of the country in about a week or so. This will create more problems out there because the monsoon season hasn't been as productive as hoped for for AZ and NM...and this certainly won't help the cause at all.


Finally onto the tropics where Gert has moved towards the east of Bermuda and will continue out to sea...Gert is the 7th named storm and so far not one hurricane this season out of all of them. As I mentioned over the weekend...even if Gert becomes a hurricane, in the 6th previous storms this year, they too hadn't become hurricanes...for that number of storms (6) that had never happened before. In other words by the time you got to the "G" name, you always had a hurricane...so this is unusual indeed!








That's about it for today...have a great week!

Joe


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