So let's talk storms...there is a large developing area of storms right now across and north of the I-80 corridor from near Omaha eastwards towards the north of Des Moines. The storms are racing towards the ESE and have produced some larger hail and gusty winds...and severe weather is possible in that area southwards to the NE and IA borders...here is a summation of the area of concern to the north...
These storms will continue to evolve and change over the next 6 hours...and a Severe T/Storm Watch is in effect for areas north of MO...
The storms will continue to develop farther off to the SW over the next 6 hours and those storms may get here towards or after 10PM for the metro or thereabouts from the NW to the SE...The SPC is also watching a corridor along the MO River for the potential of severe weather...one issue with how far SW the storms will form is the CAP which is trying to increase in strength across the Plains states and even closer to home across C and E KS...so this is certain a tricky forecast...
This includes the entire FOX 4 viewing area...
Again as these storms evolve they will generate a rather large cold pool that will surge to the SSE to SE over the next 6 hours or so...that pool should help to fire off new storms as it acts as a cold front that should move close to our area. The question that needs to be answered, and will be by 8PM I think is how much development takes place tot he SW of this original batch of storms. As is, strictly by looking at radar at this moment, it looks like a lot of the activity may barely clip the metro and pass mostly off towards the NE of the metro with the potential for 1-3" rainfall in addition to the storms. Also whatever surface boundary makes it to the area, will be overrun tomorrow early AM by an increasing low level jet that should spark off additional storms...
A lot of the parameters in the atmosphere favor a quick hitting shot of decent+ storms for the metro....including the high dewpoints, the amount of moisture in the atmosphere (PW's), the high CAPE values (instability in the atmosphere) in E Nebraska that's waiting to be tapped. That area will be a key tot he metro getting bigger storms/rainfall. That will be the area that we watch the most for development. Should things really get going in SE NE...then the metro is more in line with future rainfall, should nothing happen in that area, the worst may pass to the NE of KC.
Another opportunity for storms will develop tomorrow late night into SAT AM...although the bulk of the weekend looks to be dry I believe with highs in the 80s for the most part.
Other items of note include ANOTHER stage collapse, this because of (shocking) t/storm winds. This one occurred in Belgium. At least 4 so far are reported dead.
The tropics are still alive this afternoon. We've had 7 named storms so far in 2011 and Harvey would be the next named storm. At it may be trying to develop now across the Caribbean.
It's a small system and is moving from the W>E and appears to be more of a threat, should it develop more to the Central America area...area #2 which doesn't look impressive at this point...if forecasted by the longer range model guidance to potentially become the seasons first hurricane sometime next week somewhere int he Caribbean. We'll see about that.
Oklahoma City today had their 47th day this year with highs of 100+...the record is 50 back in 1980. Seems very doable, perhaps sooner rather than later. The NWS has issued an Excessive Heat Watch for parts of E OK through the weekend...as another run of 103+ heat is possible there, combined with dewpoints that will send the heat index to near 110+...
Meanwhile in addition to the heat in OK...look at this nasty heat in TX, that really has never broken.
The RED numbers are the temperatures and the GREEN numbers are the dewpoints. Houston and College Station are on track to have their HOTTEST August in recorded history. They set a record LAST August...and should break it this August! Pretty darn impressive!
That's it for now...
Joe
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