A definite touch of fall out there this afternoon with 2PM temperatures only in the 50s (South)/60s (KC North) around the area...all thanks to a push of modified arctic air that has quickly moved into the area...it does appear that today will be the first day with highs in the 60s since May 28th @ KCI, assuming we don't pop another 5 degrees...you can feel the seasons changing out there...but it is temporary as a return to much warmer weather is likely later next week. Yesterday Springfield, MO hit 99...today they're in the upper 50s...and some more wonderful late summer/early fall weather days are appearing more and more likely as we finish off the summer season.

This airmass was born over the far NW territories a few days ago and should set record lows across the upper midwest and perhaps the Great Lakes areas over the next couple of mornings before the airmass moves away. Freeze warnings are in effect for almost all of MN, ND and parts of WI, SD, and IA. While we shouldn't see frost around the metro, it's not out of the question that there could be some very patchy front closer to the IA border area...dewpoints in the central plains states are in the 20s and 30s from the I-80 corridor northwards and with clear/clearing skies and lighter winds, a chilly night is certainly in store for a large part of the area...the record low for Minneapolis/St Paul is 36 for THU and 38 for FRI...those should easily be broken...this is very early for them to have a freeze...here is a map from the NWS in MSP showing the median 1st freeze dates...for the MSP area it's October 1st-10th.

Just as an FYI...for the KC area our 1st freeze on average falls towards the 3rd week of October...

Over the last 10 years here are our 1st 32 or below days @ KCI...

2010:  10/29
2009:  10/18
2008:  10/27
2007:  11/1
2006:  10/13
2005:  11/10
2004:  11/12
2003:  10/26
2002:  10/13
2001:  10/27
2000:  10/6

Of course this varies quite a bit in the rural areas...the NWS in Pleasant Hill has a web page dedicated to this...go here for more information.

Overall the cool weather will last for the next several days...tomorrow looks fine with highs again in the 60s then there is the issue of what happens as the cool airmass starts to move away and warmer air aloft (at the beginning) starts to move in. The air is not only cool but will be rather dry, this may prevent much in the way of rain to make it to the ground. There will be a lot of clouds in the mid levels on FRI moving through, and there is a chance for at least some sprinkles in the area...somebody will probably get a few hundredths but the air below 7-8000 feet will be pretty dry so a lot of whatever falls may evaporate before it reaches the ground. The models typically don't handle these scenarios well...but it's tough at this point to imagine anything of significance moving on through.


There will be an additional wave in the mid levels moving through on SAT...I can see this one being a bit stronger and I do think the rain chance on SAT is better than FRI...don't think it would be anything more than a few hours worth...but the potential is certainly there for something in the AM on SAT...the American Royal Parade is SAT @ 10AM...I'll be there with StormFox, so I'm hoping I don't need to use the windshield wipers.

Needless to say it's been very dry around the metro this month. In KS the summer drought has cost upwards of  $1.7 Billion dollars. Recently you heard of another batch of devastating fires in TX...here is a satellite photo showing the burn scar left over from these terrible fires...

Today in Atlanta, it was another 90+ day for the 90th time this year...this ties the record set in 1980. Yesterday Dallas hit 100+ for the 70th time for a record and Wichita Falls hit 100+ for the 100th time, another record. Houston yesterday hit 102 for the latest on record...so this year they hit 102 the earliest and the latest on record. Here is another graphic showing some the the extreme heat in SE TX...

Not a lot of rainfall is expected down there for the next couple of weeks.

Have a great rest of the week.

Joe

Another comprehensive weather blog for you on this beautiful TGIF afternoon in the region. We'll talk about our weather, with a disturbance possible on Sunday PM and of course the latest on Irene.

1st topic is our weather...great out there right now and it will remain that way through the first part of the weekend. High pressure which built in yesterday is keeping the air nice and dry...dewpoints are reasonable for late August (lower 60s) and the winds are light out of the S/SSE...in other words about as good as you can ask for. While we continue to evaporate all that rainfall for the last couple of weeks...areas farther SW, away from KC are certainly drier and that is reflected in the temperatures and the dewpoints...here is the 2PM weather map...the numbers in GREEN represent the dewpoints...notice they're in the 40s(!) to the SW of KC...

Over the weekend, the issue we'll have, as we finish the weekend, is the pesky NW flow that again is an issue for us...I haven't had much luck with timing the rainfall in these situations (i.e. this past MON) so things may happen a bit faster than I'm shooting for...but as you can see from the map below, there is another wave crossing the Rockies and moving into the Plains SUN AM...this should ripple our way and at least give us the chance of storms moving through quickly SUN PM/Evening. It's possible they may be east/west of the metro, but I won't be able to figure that part out till SUN AM so I just want you to be aware of the potential for something after lunch on Sunday.

After that we should be fine for of next week with a quick shot of heat likely into next THU...perhaps another 95-98 run for highs ahead of some sort of front for later in week. The latest EURO brings a decent front through next weekend, the GFS really doesn't have much.

Before I get to Irene...I wanted to touch on the heat down across the Southern Plains...I dug this up today from NOAA...this is through yesterday in terms of the numbers...just incredible in the big scheme of things.

So far today, at least Dallas and Oklahoma City are near to above 100, as well as most of N TX and S OK. Houston is @ 99 as I type...crazy indeed!

OK, lets get to Irene...I've always been fascinated with the tropical aspects of Meteorology. My senior project was a research paper into Hurricane Allan from 1980 that was an amazing storm in the Gulf Of Mexico. Anyway...here is the latest.

The storm is healthy but not a "Katrina" storm. It has held it's own today, going through various waves of slow intensifying and then decreasing a bit in strength. One thing that needs to be pointed out is the wind field. the pressure of the storm started dropping yesterday evening...however the winds around the hurricane didn't increase in intensity...however they did broaden out. At this point tropical storm force winds (38+ MPH) go out about 450 miles from east>west...basically the distance from the KC area to almost Indianapolis. Hurricane force winds (74+ MPH) go out some 130 miles from E>W or roughly the distance from the KC to Abilene, KS...so the scope of the storm is very large. Take a look at it...

Moving northwards @ about 15 MPH...should make landfall near Morehead City, NC sometime tomorrow AM then move through far eastern NC during the day tomorrow before coming up the NE seaboard. Winds are near 100 MPH...the strongest winds, if you were to draw a line right through the center of the storm from the N>S are on the right hand side of the storm...the "weaker" winds are on the left hand side of the storm. Here is another way of explaining that...from boatus.com

Here is radar showing the storm...as of this writing look down to the bottom of the screen, you can see a circular, clear area..this is the eye...it will become more and more vivid over the next 12 hours as the storm gets closer tot he radar sites.


The track of the storm by SUN AM takes it near or maybe about 50 miles east of NYC...this may reduce the strongest winds in the NYC area, and also knock down the storm surge somewhat. But there are concerns about the storms timing and also the time of the highest tides. Today the Mayor order the evacuation of some low lying areas...some 250,000 people. Reports indicate that this is the 1st time that has been ordered. Also mass transit is closing down tomorrow @ noon in the NYC area. On the assumption that Irene makes landfall again near central Long Island...the biggest issue for that part of the country will be flooding rainfall and 40-70 MPH winds...take a look at how much rain the NWS is projecting for that area...

1000 flights have been cancelled so far for the upcoming weekend. Odds are, much like some of their blizzards for the past couple of years, it'll take a few days for all of this to settle back down from a flight situation. Obviously if you're more interested in all the human effects of this, check in with the NY Times, NY Daily News etc for more information.

That'll do it for today, I've got a lot planned for you this weekend in my Irene coverage. By the way...to answer the FB quiz question...5 years ago on Monday Katrina hit the Gulf Coast.

Joe

What a wonderful day around the area as temperatures are in the lower 80s now and skies are perfectly clear. This great weather, of course, is in contrast to what the folks in the SE part and NE part of the country are dealing with and watching as I type. Of course Irene will be the focus of this weather blog.

I haven't been overly impressed later this AM and PM with the "look" of Irene. While radar is showing the eye of the storm...recon reports indicate that the eye is ragged and "open" across the southern and western parts. This tells me that for whatever reason, Irene is not as "healthy" now as it was yesterday at about this time. Recon reports also so the winds in the 90-105 mph range and have been doing so for the last several flights. The eye of the storm, which was a tight 15 miles across has broadened to 35 miles across which is NOT a sign of a healthy hurricane...which is a good thing for the Eastern Seaboard. Whether the interaction with Andros Island in the Bahamas or perhaps some weak shear and/or perhaps even some dry air circulating into the storm...something is and has been going on today with the "look" of the storm in my opinion.

Regardless of all that, the storm is a large one and the wind field last night was expanding in scope, perhaps not intensity but size and width. This is what I'm talking about...notice the wind speeds around the storm...this from boatus.com

Click on that graphic to make it more readable. The satellite photo this afternoon shows that this hurricane is definitely eastern oriented...

The "official" forecast track hasn't really wavered that much, perhaps though leaning back towards the west over the past 24 hours or so...

The NE part of the country is watching this like a hawk, because this is becoming more and more like yet another billion $ weather event, and the metropolis's back east may really bear the brunt of the flooding and wave action along the coastline. Rainfall itself may be astounding...I got up to about the 10" contour and stopped counting...

In terms of model forecasts...they still seem to be making another landfall point being somewhere along Long Island, NY...or perhaps even hugging the coastline up to NYC from the Delmarva.

This brings into play the MAJOR issue of flooding for the NY area. In Philadelphia, they just broke their August rainfall record with over 13". This without even a single drop of rainfall from Irene. Mayor Bloomberg of NY will decide tomorrow whether or not to start evacuations from what is referred to as Zone A, those most subject to flooding from any urricane...I like to look at this map to get an idea where they're thinking about evacuating. The city breaks down their evacuations into zones...

• Residents in Zone A face the highest risk of flooding from a hurricane's storm surge. Zone A includes all low-lying coastal areas and other areas that could experience storm surge in ANY hurricane that makes landfall close to New York City.
• Residents in Zone B may experience storm surge flooding from a MODERATE (Category 2 or higher) hurricane.
• Residents in Zone C may experience storm surge flooding from a MAJOR hurricane (Category 3 & 4) making landfall just south of New York City. A major hurricane is unlikely in New York City, but not impossible.

Here is a timely article about how vulnerable NYC is to something like this. Think about the flooding, all the underground stuff (subways) etc that would be impacted by the water. It really is amazing the potential disaster that may unfold. Obviously a lot can change, Mainly the question I have is how strong will this thing really be, in terms of wind as it gets up there. That is connected to the exact track it takes, farther inland and the wind aspect is reduced, however the rain amounts would still be extreme unless the storms speed increases dramatically which isn't expected till it passes through New England. The latest EURO came in with an initial landfall near Morehead City, NC...then to near Plymouth, NC...then right up the coastline towards Atlantic City, NJ, then weakening as it passes over NYC. This track, should it verify would be really horrific assuming the storm maintains CAT 1 status as it moves northwards. Also there has to be consideration for all the high rise buildings, and the potential for glass breakage. The farther up you go the less friction there is and the higher the likelyhood of building damage. Remember Katrina back in '05 and the hotel that was hit by the winds...here is a picture to jog your memory...

Something like this MAY occur in the NYC area, depending on the intensity of the winds with the track portrayed by the EURO. Farther east and the winds won't be as severe...still in the 50-70 MPH range.

Expect the entire NE part of the country closest to the coastline to close down this weekend.

Joe

Here is the latest about Irene...

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.9N 76.8W
ABOUT 75 MI...115 KM NNE OF NASSAU
ABOUT 645 MI...1040 KM S OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...951 MB...28.08 INCHES

Hurricane Watches are in effect along the NC Coastline...and these will be expanded farther north before the night is done...

The folks from AccuWeather have put together a good compilation of the effects of Irene...

More later...

Joe

T/Storm chances are the topic of the weather blog this afternoon, as well as other tidbits for you on a Thursday..good afternoon and thanks for reading, whether through Facebook, or through the website...

So let's talk storms...there is a large developing area of storms right now across and north of the I-80 corridor from near Omaha eastwards towards the north of Des Moines. The storms are racing towards the ESE and have produced some larger hail and gusty winds...and severe weather is possible in that area southwards to the NE and IA borders...here is a summation of the area of concern to the north...

These storms will continue to evolve and change over the next 6 hours...and a Severe T/Storm Watch is in effect for areas north of MO...

The storms will continue to develop farther off to the SW over the next 6 hours and those storms may get here towards or after 10PM for the metro or thereabouts from the NW to the SE...The SPC is also watching a corridor along the MO River for the potential of severe weather...one issue with how far SW the storms will form is the CAP which is trying to increase in strength across the Plains states and even closer to home across C and E KS...so this is certain a tricky forecast...

This includes the entire FOX 4 viewing area...

Again as these storms evolve they will generate a rather large cold pool that will surge to the SSE to SE over the next 6 hours or so...that pool should help to fire off new storms as it acts as a cold front that should move close to our area. The question that needs to be answered, and will be by 8PM I think is how much development takes place tot he SW of this original batch of storms. As is, strictly by looking at radar at this moment, it looks like a lot of the activity may barely clip the metro and pass mostly off towards the NE of the metro with the potential for 1-3" rainfall in addition to the storms. Also whatever surface boundary makes it to the area, will be overrun tomorrow early AM by an increasing low level jet that should spark off additional storms...

A lot of the parameters in the atmosphere favor a quick hitting shot of decent+ storms for the metro....including the high dewpoints, the amount of moisture in the atmosphere (PW's), the high CAPE values (instability in the atmosphere) in E Nebraska that's waiting to be tapped. That area will be a key tot he metro getting bigger storms/rainfall. That will be the area that we watch the most for development. Should things really get going in SE NE...then the metro is more in line with future rainfall, should nothing happen in that area, the worst may pass to the NE of KC.

Another opportunity for storms will develop tomorrow late night into SAT AM...although the bulk of the weekend looks to be dry I believe with highs in the 80s for the most part.


Other items of note include ANOTHER stage collapse, this because of (shocking) t/storm winds. This one occurred in Belgium. At least 4 so far are reported dead.

The tropics are still alive this afternoon. We've had 7 named storms so far in 2011 and Harvey would be the next named storm. At it may be trying to develop now across the Caribbean.

It's a small system and is moving from the W>E and appears to be more of a threat, should it develop more to the Central America area...area #2 which doesn't look impressive at this point...if forecasted by the longer range model guidance to potentially become the seasons first hurricane sometime next week somewhere int he Caribbean. We'll see about that.

Oklahoma City today had their 47th day this year with highs of 100+...the record is 50 back in 1980. Seems very doable, perhaps sooner rather than later. The NWS has issued an Excessive Heat Watch for parts of E OK through the weekend...as another run of 103+ heat is possible there, combined with dewpoints that will send the heat index to near 110+...

Meanwhile in addition to the heat in OK...look at this nasty heat in TX, that really has never broken.

The RED numbers are the temperatures and the GREEN numbers are the dewpoints. Houston and College Station are on track to have their HOTTEST August in recorded history. They set a record LAST August...and should break it this August! Pretty darn impressive!


That's it for now...

Joe

Well, I'm not totally surprised that it rained today, I'm rather shocked that it has persisted as long as it's done so and also that it turned into a great soaking rain for the metro as well as others in NE KS and far W MO...

Last night I thought the best chance of something like this happening was to the NW of C...even showed a map highlighting the area I thought was most vulnerable to something like what happened today.. That map did not include the metro...I only had a 20-30% chance of some rain today. Timed out the rain perfectly but again not a very good forecast for the KC area at all. Rainfall amounts in the region were in the neighborhood of .25 to .75" or so...with a few areas closing in on 1"+. Here is a look at the doppler estimates from the NWS radar in Topeka...I'm still hesitant to show the radar data for indicated totals from Pleasant Hill because I think it's still running to high...

Ground truth is next...several views for you through John, Jackson and Platte Counties...

Now let's move a bit farther northwards...

From the airports @ 1PM here are the totals...

KCI: .61"
Downtown: .47"
Olathe: .68"
Gardner: .35"
Lawrence: .46"
Topeka: .74:
Lees Summit: .35"
Sedalia: Trace

A great soaking rainfall...

We'll continue to have opportunities almost all week long. I don't think it will rain every day though, but in this pesky NW flow, any little disturbance will create rainfall and the air will be getting more saturated over the next few days. We never really get totally capped either...so it's going to be a tricky forecast for the next 5 days or so...

The heat will also be lingering to the south, although not to the extreme as previous weeks, it's still there and will creep farther northwards as the week moves along. Notice the temperatures tomorrow towards southern KS...

Now take a look at Wednesday...

Again notice where the heat is...just across S KS and OK...sitting there. I still think we'll nibble one more time into that airmass for a few days but for the time being it looks like the persistent ridge/dome of hot air will gradually push back out through the Rockies and Western 1/3rd of the country in about a week or so. This will create more problems out there because the monsoon season hasn't been as productive as hoped for for AZ and NM...and this certainly won't help the cause at all.


Finally onto the tropics where Gert has moved towards the east of Bermuda and will continue out to sea...Gert is the 7th named storm and so far not one hurricane this season out of all of them. As I mentioned over the weekend...even if Gert becomes a hurricane, in the 6th previous storms this year, they too hadn't become hurricanes...for that number of storms (6) that had never happened before. In other words by the time you got to the "G" name, you always had a hurricane...so this is unusual indeed!

That's about it for today...have a great week!

Joe

6PM Update+++++++++++++

Latest models are showing a good soaking rain for tomorrow...the key area to watch later tonight is the western plains were another complex of storms should develop and roll our way....these NW flow situations are pretty tricky and color me somewhat impressed by the ripple that will rapidly increase the clouds this evening and may create a few showers after 8PM or so, especially on the KC side...here are some of the totals of the NAM...1st the 12Z run...

Now here is the 18Z run...

My forecast for the metro is widespread .25-1" rainfall...areas farther NE away from KC will see less...and areas to the SW of KC may see .75-1.5" of much needed rainfall...

Let's keep our fingers crossed!


asf