A definite touch of fall out there this afternoon with 2PM temperatures only in the 50s (South)/60s (KC North) around the area...all thanks to a push of modified arctic air that has quickly moved into the area...it does appear that today will be the first day with highs in the 60s since May 28th @ KCI, assuming we don't pop another 5 degrees...you can feel the seasons changing out there...but it is temporary as a return to much warmer weather is likely later next week. Yesterday Springfield, MO hit 99...today they're in the upper 50s...and some more wonderful late summer/early fall weather days are appearing more and more likely as we finish off the summer season.

This airmass was born over the far NW territories a few days ago and should set record lows across the upper midwest and perhaps the Great Lakes areas over the next couple of mornings before the airmass moves away. Freeze warnings are in effect for almost all of MN, ND and parts of WI, SD, and IA. While we shouldn't see frost around the metro, it's not out of the question that there could be some very patchy front closer to the IA border area...dewpoints in the central plains states are in the 20s and 30s from the I-80 corridor northwards and with clear/clearing skies and lighter winds, a chilly night is certainly in store for a large part of the area...the record low for Minneapolis/St Paul is 36 for THU and 38 for FRI...those should easily be broken...this is very early for them to have a freeze...here is a map from the NWS in MSP showing the median 1st freeze dates...for the MSP area it's October 1st-10th.

Just as an FYI...for the KC area our 1st freeze on average falls towards the 3rd week of October...

Over the last 10 years here are our 1st 32 or below days @ KCI...

2010:  10/29
2009:  10/18
2008:  10/27
2007:  11/1
2006:  10/13
2005:  11/10
2004:  11/12
2003:  10/26
2002:  10/13
2001:  10/27
2000:  10/6

Of course this varies quite a bit in the rural areas...the NWS in Pleasant Hill has a web page dedicated to this...go here for more information.

Overall the cool weather will last for the next several days...tomorrow looks fine with highs again in the 60s then there is the issue of what happens as the cool airmass starts to move away and warmer air aloft (at the beginning) starts to move in. The air is not only cool but will be rather dry, this may prevent much in the way of rain to make it to the ground. There will be a lot of clouds in the mid levels on FRI moving through, and there is a chance for at least some sprinkles in the area...somebody will probably get a few hundredths but the air below 7-8000 feet will be pretty dry so a lot of whatever falls may evaporate before it reaches the ground. The models typically don't handle these scenarios well...but it's tough at this point to imagine anything of significance moving on through.


There will be an additional wave in the mid levels moving through on SAT...I can see this one being a bit stronger and I do think the rain chance on SAT is better than FRI...don't think it would be anything more than a few hours worth...but the potential is certainly there for something in the AM on SAT...the American Royal Parade is SAT @ 10AM...I'll be there with StormFox, so I'm hoping I don't need to use the windshield wipers.

Needless to say it's been very dry around the metro this month. In KS the summer drought has cost upwards of  $1.7 Billion dollars. Recently you heard of another batch of devastating fires in TX...here is a satellite photo showing the burn scar left over from these terrible fires...

Today in Atlanta, it was another 90+ day for the 90th time this year...this ties the record set in 1980. Yesterday Dallas hit 100+ for the 70th time for a record and Wichita Falls hit 100+ for the 100th time, another record. Houston yesterday hit 102 for the latest on record...so this year they hit 102 the earliest and the latest on record. Here is another graphic showing some the the extreme heat in SE TX...

Not a lot of rainfall is expected down there for the next couple of weeks.

Have a great rest of the week.

Joe