The summer doldrums have now arrived and it may be another week or so before we get to talk about better rain chances around these parts...the main focus will be on a developing heat wave that will encompass more terrain than the previous spell of hot weather...and this looks to last longer fueled be a strong area of High Pressure in the middle-upper part of the atmosphere and dry-drought conditions that continue to worsen across the southern plains states and slowly creeping up towards the SW part of the viewing area....

This will be a nasty stretch of highs, on average between 95-100 with 100+ readings again possible on the S/SW side of the viewing area. It will take another several days for the rainfall that fell to evaporate and this will take the form of higher dewpoints for awhile so that means the heat index will be nastier as well...hence the Excessive Heat Warning that just been issued this afternoon. This looks to last through the end of next week...there are hints in the modeling of a strong enough wave to move across the US/Canadian border later next week to drag a cold front through here before next weekend. Ahead of this front would be the hottest weather, with additional wind as well. By them the soil moisture will be sparse and with that wind, comes the risk of 100-105 degree highs "officially" @ KCI that is. The positive is that the dewpoints by then should be dropping into the middle 60s so the heat index values, still high, may actually be a bit lower. Overnight lows will be int he 75-80 range in the outlying areas to 80-85 range in Downtown KC...that's a bad combination for people who don't have A/C and have no opportunity to cool off, even at night.

Did you know that so far this year 9 people have died from heat related causes in the KC area...that's more people killed from the heat than from tornados and flooding combined for many years in the KC area. Interesting isn't heat. We, in the media, make sooooo much about the threat of tornados, that in reality it's the creeping and building heat that is a much more significant weather killer, on average for KC. Just something to think about...

The drought across the southern plains states continues to fester as well...take a look at this map showing the extent. This is from earlier this week...

Now let's focus into Texas where 72% of the state is considered in the "exceptional" category.

Farther north into southern KS and the drought has jumped the OK/KS line...take a look...

The reason for the coming heat is a large ridge developing through the atmosphere and centering itself across KS and MO...this dome of hot air will extend from the surface upwards of 20000'. The warmer air aloft will be sinking as well...as air sinks it heats up and this will make hot afternoons even hotter. Take a look at the GFS forecast for later next week...

That circle in the middle is the mature anticyclone that will be wobbling around for several days...the temperatures at that level will be near -5C which sounds cold, but then again you're talking close to 3.5 miles up...and in reality it's really not that cold for that level...as you come down it gets much warmer...take a look at the 5000' temperatures...for the same time frame...

If you remember LAST year from the 13th of July through the rest of month every day (except 4) were marked by highs in the 90-95 range and dewpoints in the high 70s and low 80s...it was awful. Then for the 1st 14 days of August we had 1 day in the 80s (89) and 3 in the 100s @ KCI including the 13th when we hit 103 for the hottest day since August of 2006...again nasty heat on top of nasty heat.

I just dug up some interesting heat related information from the MO Health Dept...

In Missouri, the greatest numbers of heat-related deaths have occurred in the urban, more densely populated areas of St. Louis City, St Louis County and Jackson County (Kansas City). Of the 231 heat-related deaths reported from 2000 through 2010, there were 140 (61%) deaths in these metropolitan areas. Rural deaths accounted for 91 (39%) of the deaths. Non-Missouri residents who succumb to heat while visiting are considered cases, accounting for 6 deaths. Hyperthermia Mortality by Geographic Area, Missouri 2000-2010 White males are the most frequent victims of heat-related illness resulting in death. In the same nine-year period, there were 113 (49%) white male deaths. Hyperthermia Mortality by Race and Sex, Missouri 2000-2010  

Slightly more than half 120 (52%) of the 231 deaths during 2000-2010 have been of people age 65 years and older. Victims in this population often live alone and have other complicating medical conditions. Also, lack of air conditioning or refusal to use it for fear of higher utility expenses contributes to the number of deaths in the senior population. There were 99 (43%) hyperthermia deaths occurring in the 5 through 64-year-old age group. These deaths often have contributing causes such as physical activity (sports or work), complicating medical conditions, or substance abuse. Circumstances causing hyperthermia deaths in young children often involve a motor vehicle—a child left in or climbing into a parked vehicle during hot weather. From 2000-2010, there were 12 (5%) deaths of children less than five years of age.

Missouri’s highest temperatures generally occur in July and August each summer. Thus, the majority of hot-weather-related deaths also occur during these months. Of the 231 deaths from 2000-2010, 97 (42%) deaths were during the month of July and 88 (38%) were in August. In 2010, 10 of the 17 hot weather-related deaths occurred in August. During August 2010, the heat index exceeded 100 in the majority of the state for a period of 7 or more days

Stay cool and remember your heat safety tips...you'll need them for another 7-10 days at least...

Joe