Thursday, July 7, 2011

Some areas did better than others, but overall it was a decent rain for a good chunk of the region...as 1-2" fell north of I-70 with .33-.75" on the south side of KC...here are some rainfall totals from the metro showing the rainfall distribution...definitely the favored areas were on the northside...


Let's start out on the northside of JOCO...


Now a bit farther southwards...


As mentioned it seemed the northside did the best for the rain...got a call from Excelsior Springs with 2.25" there and Plattsburg had 1.25"...


Finally a look at the doppler estimates...notice the heavier amounts across far northern MO...doppler indications from the NWS in Topeka and Pleasant Hill both show some pockets of 2-4" totals across the NW part of MO...that will drain into the MO River Basin...






This all came about from a disturbance that moved through the plains states overnight about as expected. We had a good feeling the rain would get here, the issue was how much would fall and who would be targeted. Now the complex of storms/rain has moved away from the area, and the visible satellite picture shows a trailing MCV (mesoscale convective vortex) of sorts in SE NE as well as one in EC MO...


That rtailing MCV represents a small pocket of cooler air in the atmosphere confined to a small area...while temperatures now are int eh 75-80 range...we should go up another 5-7 degrees this afternoon. This warmth, combined with the trailing vortex may just be enough to spark some additional storm activity to the NW of here in a few more hours...on the visible loop you can clear see it rotating and even see subsidence on the N and W side with pronounced clearing going on in NE away from the MCV. The end result of this may be some scattered new t/storms that could fire up towards the NW of KC and then move towards the east. Something to watch for in the next several hours. They should quickly dissipate during the evening.

Regardless of all this, the building heat (not extreme but grinding nonetheless) is the main focus of the forecast as a prolonged period of 90-95+ with HI's 100-105+ look to take control towards the weekend and into the early part of next week. It's been crazy hot in OKC these last couple of months...MT did some research indicating that today is the18th this year @ 100+ and they've had a whooping 1.24" of rainfall since June 1st
with an average high in July so far as 103. Here are some other interesting facts concerning summers in OKC...from their NWS office.

Records date back to 1891:

  • Average First 90-Degree Temperature - ~May 6. The first 90-degree temperature this year occurred on April 3 (91o).
  • Average Last 90-Degree Temperature - ~September 27th
  • Average First 100-Degree Temperature - ~July 9th
  • Average Last 100-Degree Temperature - ~August 20th
  • Earliest 90-Degree Temperature - February 1, 1911 (90°)
  • Latest 90-Degree Temperature - October 26, 1891 (92°)
  • Latest 100-Degree Temperature - September 30, 1977 (100°)
  • Earliest 100-Degree Temperature  - April 12, 1972 (100°)
  • Hottest Temperature on Record - 113° (August 11, 1936). The temperature was 112° the day before and 110° the day after.
  • Warmest Low Temperature on Record - 83° (July 25, 1934, August 1, 1934, August 12 and 13, 1936)
  • Hottest Temperature over the Last 10 Years - 108° (September 2 and 3, 2000)
  • Average Temperature for the Hottest Climatological Summer (June thru August) - 85.9° in 1934 and 1980
  • Last 100-Degree Temperature in 2010 - August 23nd (104°)
  • First 100-Degree Temperature in 2011 - June 14th (100°)
  • Warmest Temperature of 2010 - 104° (August 13 & 23, 2010)
  • Warmest Temperature So Far This Year - 105° (July 6th)

Notable 90° & 100° Streaks:

  • Most Consecutive 100-Degree Days - 22 (August 4 - 26, 1936). The most recent streak was 17 consecutive days ending on September 4, 2000 (3rd longest).
  • Fewest 100-Degree Temperatures in a Calendar Year - 0 (Numerous times, most recently in 2004)
  • Most 100-Degree Temperatures in a Calendar Year - 50 (1980)
  • Most 100-Degree Temperatures in June - 12 (1953). June 2011 had 11 100-degree high temperatures.
  • Most 100-Degree Temperatures in July - 24 (1980)
  • Most 100-Degree Temperatures in August - 24 (2000)
  • Most 100-Degree Temperatures in September - 7 (2000)
  • Highest Total of Temperatures at least 90-Degree in a Calendar Year - 113 (1998)
  • Highest Total of Temperatures at least 90-Degree in June - 30 (2011)
  • Highest Total of Temperatures at least 90-Degree in July - 31 (1954, 1980, 2003, 2006)
  • Highest Total of Temperatures at least 90-Degree in August - 31 (1980, 1999, 2000)
  • Highest Total of Temperatures at least 90-Degree in September - 25 (1939)

Back home, let's go up too about 5000 feet and show the temperatures for the end of the weekend...notice the core of the heat...while in the southern Rockies and the SW Plains areas it does ooze our way somewhat...hence the hotter trends for us.



Odds also favor an increasing dry forecast for quite some time. There have been suggestions that some sort of tropical wave will move ashore in E TX early next week and take the long way around our developing ridge...through central then western TX then up towards the NE towards the region sometime on Wednesday. The models have been persistent in trying to do this for several days so the next chance of decent rainfall and a minor drop in temperatures would be towards the middle of next week with the heat returning in force towards the end of next week and into the weekend of 7/16 or so...

Finally the NWS in Phoenix has a comprehensive write-up concerning the events leading up to the tremendous haboob that occurred there on Tuesday...take a look

Joe.

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