It's Summer! Let's talk ICE...

OK not KC ice...this is not a rehash of any KC icestorm...but instead it concerns what's happening up in far northern AK where the ice continues to melt/move away from the coastline as it usually does during this time of the year. Up in Barrow, which is in far northern AK, the temperatures are topping off near 50 or so, they're enjoying 24 hour sunshine (stays that way till 8/3) and the sea ice has finally moved away...take a look at the picture from their webcam...

There is actually a lot of science that goes into all this ice...take a look here if you're interested.

Meanwhile the heat persists in the southern Plains states...last year on this date, Amarillo started to set a 24 hour record for rainfall with close to 7.5" (they had 4.08" on the 8th). This year they've had a whooping 1.4" of precipitation for the entire year!

So you have all that heat sitting there...at some point it's hard to imagine how we can't have some significant heat here...but despite how close it will be, the worst may still be later int he month into AUG...which is typically the hottest time of the year here anyways.

Wichita has had 16 days with temperatures at or above 100 this year including 4 so far this month. So it's there and will at various times over the next 10 vaccinate north and south. Here in the KC area, our temperatures will continue to max out in the mid-upper 90s at their worst we think. We still have lots of greenery out there and the .5-2.5" of rain that we saw on WED won't hurt that cause. Depending on what happens next MON (weak front MAY try to edge into the area) and especially next WED (remnants of some sort of tropical energy move up from the SW) we may have the opportunity to add to the rain gauges...this will then have "green" repercussions on our terrain around these parts again reducing our chances of "officially"
getting towards 100 degrees @ KCI. So basically what we're going to see for the next 7 days is more or less typical KC summer weather with typical KC humidity. WED. potentially, could be a sneakier cool day depending on the timing of the clouds/rainfall. They're may be some heavy downpours IF this disturbance hits us with the right timing and taking advantage of lots of instability.

It does look like that creeping heat will again try and spread northwards towards next weekend, which is what was talked about yesterday.

That's about it for today...have a great weekend!

Joe

Some areas did better than others, but overall it was a decent rain for a good chunk of the region...as 1-2" fell north of I-70 with .33-.75" on the south side of KC...here are some rainfall totals from the metro showing the rainfall distribution...definitely the favored areas were on the northside...


Let's start out on the northside of JOCO...

Now a bit farther southwards...

As mentioned it seemed the northside did the best for the rain...got a call from Excelsior Springs with 2.25" there and Plattsburg had 1.25"...

Finally a look at the doppler estimates...notice the heavier amounts across far northern MO...doppler indications from the NWS in Topeka and Pleasant Hill both show some pockets of 2-4" totals across the NW part of MO...that will drain into the MO River Basin...

This all came about from a disturbance that moved through the plains states overnight about as expected. We had a good feeling the rain would get here, the issue was how much would fall and who would be targeted. Now the complex of storms/rain has moved away from the area, and the visible satellite picture shows a trailing MCV (mesoscale convective vortex) of sorts in SE NE as well as one in EC MO...

That rtailing MCV represents a small pocket of cooler air in the atmosphere confined to a small area...while temperatures now are int eh 75-80 range...we should go up another 5-7 degrees this afternoon. This warmth, combined with the trailing vortex may just be enough to spark some additional storm activity to the NW of here in a few more hours...on the visible loop you can clear see it rotating and even see subsidence on the N and W side with pronounced clearing going on in NE away from the MCV. The end result of this may be some scattered new t/storms that could fire up towards the NW of KC and then move towards the east. Something to watch for in the next several hours. They should quickly dissipate during the evening.

Regardless of all this, the building heat (not extreme but grinding nonetheless) is the main focus of the forecast as a prolonged period of 90-95+ with HI's 100-105+ look to take control towards the weekend and into the early part of next week. It's been crazy hot in OKC these last couple of months...MT did some research indicating that today is the18th this year @ 100+ and they've had a whooping 1.24" of rainfall since June 1st
with an average high in July so far as 103. Here are some other interesting facts concerning summers in OKC...from their NWS office.

Records date back to 1891:

• Average First 90-Degree Temperature - ~May 6. The first 90-degree temperature this year occurred on April 3 (91^o).
• Average Last 90-Degree Temperature - ~September 27^th
• Average First 100-Degree Temperature - ~July 9^th
• Average Last 100-Degree Temperature - ~August 20^th
• Earliest 90-Degree Temperature - February 1, 1911 (90°)
• Latest 90-Degree Temperature - October 26, 1891 (92°)
• Latest 100-Degree Temperature - September 30, 1977 (100°)
• Earliest 100-Degree Temperature  - April 12, 1972 (100°)
• Hottest Temperature on Record - 113° (August 11, 1936). The temperature was 112° the day before and 110° the day after.
• Warmest Low Temperature on Record - 83° (July 25, 1934, August 1, 1934, August 12 and 13, 1936)
• Hottest Temperature over the Last 10 Years - 108° (September 2 and 3, 2000)
• Average Temperature for the Hottest Climatological Summer (June thru August) - 85.9° in 1934 and 1980
• Last 100-Degree Temperature in 2010 - August 23^nd (104°)
• First 100-Degree Temperature in 2011 - June 14^th (100°)
• Warmest Temperature of 2010 - 104° (August 13 & 23, 2010)
• Warmest Temperature So Far This Year - 105° (July 6^th)

Notable 90° & 100° Streaks:

• Most Consecutive 100-Degree Days - 22 (August 4 - 26, 1936). The most recent streak was 17 consecutive days ending on September 4, 2000 (3^rd longest).
• Fewest 100-Degree Temperatures in a Calendar Year - 0 (Numerous times, most recently in 2004)
• Most 100-Degree Temperatures in a Calendar Year - 50 (1980)
• Most 100-Degree Temperatures in June - 12 (1953). June 2011 had 11 100-degree high temperatures.
• Most 100-Degree Temperatures in July - 24 (1980)
• Most 100-Degree Temperatures in August - 24 (2000)
• Most 100-Degree Temperatures in September - 7 (2000)
• Highest Total of Temperatures at least 90-Degree in a Calendar Year - 113 (1998)
• Highest Total of Temperatures at least 90-Degree in June - 30 (2011)
• Highest Total of Temperatures at least 90-Degree in July - 31 (1954, 1980, 2003, 2006)
• Highest Total of Temperatures at least 90-Degree in August - 31 (1980, 1999, 2000)
• Highest Total of Temperatures at least 90-Degree in September - 25 (1939)

Back home, let's go up too about 5000 feet and show the temperatures for the end of the weekend...notice the core of the heat...while in the southern Rockies and the SW Plains areas it does ooze our way somewhat...hence the hotter trends for us.

Odds also favor an increasing dry forecast for quite some time. There have been suggestions that some sort of tropical wave will move ashore in E TX early next week and take the long way around our developing ridge...through central then western TX then up towards the NE towards the region sometime on Wednesday. The models have been persistent in trying to do this for several days so the next chance of decent rainfall and a minor drop in temperatures would be towards the middle of next week with the heat returning in force towards the end of next week and into the weekend of 7/16 or so...

Finally the NWS in Phoenix has a comprehensive write-up concerning the events leading up to the tremendous haboob that occurred there on Tuesday...take a look

Joe.

Storm Chances, Heat, Humidity and a haboob...another good day to be talking about the weather on the blog...let's start with the later...we're talking haboobs...they're actually pretty common in the SW part of the country and the one that hit Phoenix, according to the long time residents there who'll see several in a year sometimes was quite the biggie. The Arizona Central newspaper, which serves the Phoenix area has some great pictures taken by them as well as their readers

An haboob occurs when thunderstorms push rain cooled air to the ground. In a sense their sort of like our microbursts, except on a much bigger scale. If you remember a couple of weeks ago @ night we had collasping thunderstorms produce high winds that created heat bursts in the region...this is somewhat similar.

The winds from the storms slammed into the desert terrain (sand) and created a massive sand storm. It was roughly 1-2 miles high and spread out for some 50 miles or so. These storms will typically occur this time of the year as the monsoon season kicks in. The moisture streams in from Mexico (perhaps aided by some moisture from what was Arlene) and with the intense heat and the terrain (flat and mountains) the air rises and creates storms. The storms sometimes come together and when they die they will gust themselves out. It's the winds that create the sandstorms and when their intense (last night 50-70 MPH) then can create larger haboobs. Why "haboobs? It's an Arabic word meaning strong wind or phenomena. Now you would think that with all this t/storm generated wind that it would rain as well...usually that's not the case as either the storms rain themselves out and/or the rain evaporates before it reaches the ground (which will tend to increase the surface winds as well). The folks from Accuweather have some neat videos concerning the events of last night...and here is another neat video...

Meanwhile back home after fading rains moved through E KS providing some much needed rainfall for them, there really were only a few sprinkles around the metro...we now wait and see what will transpire across the western plains tonight. there are disturbances caught in the flow out there that are moving towards the east. You can clearly see the different blobs of cloudcover out there...now the issue is what path will the future complexes take and will they get into SE NE before turning towards the metro...or will then get into NC KS then turn towards the SE and miss us tomorrow to the west. We're betting on something tomorrow for the 1st part of the day...

Beyond those chances for tomorrow...then we focus on our typical summer heat and humidity that will linger through the the next work week with diminished precip chances. While the forecast can't really pinpoint any other strong chances for rainfall...there may be some scattered PM chances flaring up during the TUE or WED time period next week. The heat won't be extreme, but a lingering 92-96+ regime looks to be shaping up. There may be some sort of VERY weak front the gets close to us there as well...but should have a tough time pressing through here...let alone N MO...

Lastly the NOAA folks are talking about the persistent flooding that isn't going anywhere anytime soon...

That'll do it on a busy WED PM...

Joe

Before moving into the content of the blog, let me first start by giving you a short introduction as this is the first blog I have written. I am currently a junior at Iowa State University in Ames, IA where I am studying meteorology. I was born and raised in the nearby suburb of Olathe, KS and returned home for the summer after being given the opportunity to intern here at Fox 4. I am now a couple weeks into my internship and have truly enjoyed every minute that I have been here. I am anticipating the rest of my internship here at Fox 4 to be just as rewarding as my first few weeks.  

Now, onto the content of this blog.  

June 21, 2011, the official first day of summer has come and gone. Now, as the days gradually decrease in length, the summer heat finally presents itself to us here in Kansas City. Forecasts for today show temperatures exceeding 97ºF. Although these forecasted temperatures would be the warmest we have seen in the metro to date, it isn’t July 1st’s 98ºF high temperature we will remember when looking back to late spring and summer of 2011. The temperature may frustrate us in the present, but will certainly not impact us like that of the Joplin tornado of May 22, 2011, or the ongoing flooding communities near the swelling Missouri river have been experiencing.

Joplin, MO after a tornado ravaged the city. Photo courtesy of Fox News.

One month after the devastating tornado tore through the streets of Joplin, MO, clean-up efforts are well under way. Support from around the country in terms of donations and volunteer physical labor has certainly been crucial in the rebuilding process to date.

The Joplin tornado has been classified as an EF5, the highest rating on the Enhanced Fujita Scale. The Enhanced Fujita Scale (EF Scale) rates tornadoes based on their strength and the damage they cause. In the case of an EF5 tornado, wind speeds can be expected to be greater than 200mph but damage is significant and intense. The EF Scale became operational in February of 2007 replacing the Fujita scale that was introduced by Ted Fujita in 1971. Since the scale became operational in 2007, there have only been eight tornadoes classified as such; six of these EF5 tornadoes have occurred in 2011. Yes, six out of eight. 75%. Granted, the EF Scale has only been around for four years, but six EF5 tornadoes in the same season?!  Four of these EF5 tornadoes occurred during the April 25-28, 2011 tornado outbreak in Mississippi and Alabama. The following is a picture of the radar imagery from the tornado that hit Hackleburg, Al.

Hackleburg, AL EF5 tornado radar imagery. Photo courtesy of Weather Underground.

Pictures similar to those above have been all over the news following the devastating tornadoes we have experienced this season. The next couple pictures have not seen the same media time. These are pictures of the storm before it produced the tornado that has gone down in the record books as one of the worst tornadoes in US history.

Leading edge

Wall Cloud just west of Joplin, MO

Another wall cloud beginning to form

Rain-wrapped Joplin tornado

I took these pictures while out chasing this storm. On the morning of May 22, 2011, I definitely would not have guessed that before the day was over I would bear witness to one of the worst tornados the plains have ever seen. It wasn’t until early afternoon that I really even considered let alone, actually left Olathe, KS to pursue the potential locations the Storm Prediction Center in Norman, OK had forecasted to see strong storms. Leaving Olathe, I was in the car with two others and a couple hours down the road later, we found ourselves northwest of Joplin. To this point, we had no idea what the storm system near us was capable of. We kept on the move fighting the hail and rain until we were just west of Joplin and at one point in time, could see twelve rotating wall clouds at the same time, definitely an eerie sense when you’re directly in the middle of them. Driving south to let the storm pass over us, we finally came back north and then turned east towards Joplin. From our angle, every time you would start to see something starting to form, it would become rain-wrapped. It wasn’t until after the tornado had moved through Joplin, Mo that we realized exactly what we were in the middle of, without actually being in the middle of it.

The formation of this storm was definitely unique. While out in the field, especially during that time we were in the middle of so many wall clouds, despite having radar, it was very difficult to predict where exactly a tornado would form.

What did come out of this storm system was devastating, you don’t need someone one else to tell you that. The pictures like first one in this blog are heartbreaking to see. As someone who loves weather and really enjoys chasing storms like this one, the tornado itself would have been just as impressive in an empty field, and a lot less people would have been hurt. I emphasize to all of those whose lives have been severely impacted by this storm.

The Joplin tornado was probably the most impressive weather event I have experienced; the memories from it will go with me as I make my way into my own weather career.

Have a Safe and Happy 4^th of July!

Excessive Heat Watch In Effect...from Thursday through at least Saturday...if not longer depending on the temperatures...I'm shooting for 96 THU-FRI with a couple of degrees off those highs through the holiday weekend. The air aloft certainly would support higher values. My negatives from going to the extreme is 1) we need to get rid of a lot of moisture in the ground, although the farther SW you get the drier it has been over the last 5-10 days or so. 2) Winds...they will be favorable for maxing out on THU but less so on FRI...3) Dewpoints...somewhat lower on THU...but coming up FRI-SUN as the surface winds drop off. Model data suggests 100-106...

Regardless the Heat Index should easily be above 100, if not close to 110. Remember those numbers represent the temperatures in the SHADE...in the sunshine add 10-20 and on  the pavement add more compared to the grass. It's going to be nasty out there for quite some time after tomorrow.

Rain chances look minimal...perhaps a few strays tomorrow on the KS side...then we'll be watching a front over the weekend that should belly up towards the IA border. While the season has seen, at times, the cap breaking, i.e. SUN night/MON AM...it may hold a bit stronger with less forcing this weekend. We'll need to see IF storms develop...there would be the potential for an outflow to be generated and move our way altering the forecast considerable later in the weekend.


The seasons 1st TROPICAL STORM has formed in the Atlantic/Gulf Basin. Arlene is her name and will bring heavy rainfall to Mexico and potentially S TX...this could be a good thing for the drought situation down there that I've blogged about for awhile! Here is the forecast motion...

Very disorganized looking. Arlene is forecast to intensify over the next couple of days with very slow motion

Rainfall forecast per the HPC...

Back to our weather...I noticed something over the weekend on the VISIBLE satellite pictures that was confirmed for me by one of my friends @ the NWS...take a look at the picture...

Notice up across NW MO...just east of the State Line. See the absence of clouds. Notice the orientation of the clear area compared to the cloud filled regions east and west of the clear slot. Now what int he world could possibly cause this to happen? The same phenomena that causing so much consternation up there now...the flooding and the expanse of the MO River. The river has become so large that it's having an influence. locally on the temperatures. The heat of the sun, bakes the land areas and cause the temperature to go up faster, on this date (SAT) that created cloud cover where the heat was maximized...however the sun's energy is absorbed by the water, and since expanse of water is larger that normal, this kept temperatures immediately around the water area cooler. The lack of heating by comparison kept the clouds from forming. So now the MO River is actually creating it's own microclimate up there given certain weather conditions!

Meanwhile on the flip side...check out this information from AccuWeather...fascinating...I remember seeing these extremes a month or two ago in W TX and NM as well...


The National Weather Service in Las Vegas, Nevada issued a statement yesterday saying they had reached a record "dew point depression" of 129 degrees (or: low humidity of 1%) when their temperature was 107 with a dew point of -22 F.

They explain on their Facebook Page:

"Las Vegas' largest dew point depression ever recorded was set on June 27, 2011 at 129 degrees. The dew point depression is the difference between the air temperature and dew point temperature. At this time the relative humidity was 1%. The previous record dew point depression was 120 degrees set on July 2, 2007. This makes June 27, 2011 the driest day ever based on the dew point depression!"

You can't see the maximum depression on the official data graph above, where data only updates once an hour, but they posted a picture of the 1-minute data on their Facebook Page:

Relative humidity readings below 10% were widespread over the Southwest yesterday, though the KLAS airport was the driest I could find on the Mesonet map.

Joe

It's funny...if I was playing golf this afternoon and walking the course like I usually try to do for the exercise, it turns out to be close to 5-6 miles when you're done by the way, I would've had a lot of water, sweated a bit and been OK...

Today I helped the folks @ Children's TLC (Therapeutic Learning Center) with their annual Duck Derby. They've been kind enough to have me and FOX 4 involved for several years now and today was the big dropping of some 15000 ducks into Brush Creek @ the Plaza. The issue of the day was the winds, which were persistently for the AM and early PM having an SE component. This meant that for the first time in memory during the Derby, the waters of Brush Creek were going the opposite way. So after all these years of the ducks traveling from W>E...today they decided to go from E>W. So the hundreds/thousands of folks who attended the event and were accustomed to the ducks going one way, and had their seats set up, now had to reverse course. So I started walking all over the place telling the folks about the soon to be reversal of the duck motion. Between all waling,up and down, the heat and our KC humidity I started pouring out sweat. I was drinking a lot of water but when you need to be on the air a couple of hours later, you know it won't be pretty! After a few hours of A/C I'm finally cooling off, there may be some ice cream in my future tonight though IF I get everything done in time...including this weather blog! Here are some pictures of the Duck Race!

So as far as that weather goes...we made it to near 90 today with heat indices near 100. There were some 75-78 dewpoints running around this afternoon as our much heralded warm front lurched north of KC...here is the latest sat pic and weather set-up...

The moisture from the south is feeding a large developing complex of storms across the upper midwest. This complex will continue it's SE movement with perhaps a SSE shift as the night evolves and should ride the edge of a strong CAP which has built into the region....

That complex in NE Nebraska needs to be watched. For the metro, we'll need to watch the tail of that thing, stretching towards the I-80 corridor for our potential in the wee hours of MON AM.

There is some cool air behind that complex of storms, that will move in tomorrow afternoon as a cold front moves through. We should be pretty capped ahead of the front, so assuming the storms NOW in NE don't hit the metro, it's possible the front will come through dry. Areas farther SE from KC should see storms fire in the PM tomorrow, potentially some severe weather down towards the Lakes area through SE KS.

That heat in the southern plains is amazing. Amarillo which hit their ALL-TIME record high of 109 degrees FRIDAY..saw that record shattered TODAY...wow!!!!!

ALL TIME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES SET IN AMARILLO  
BORGER  
AND DALHART TODAY...  
  
THE HIGH TEMPERATURE IN AMARILLO REACHED 111 DEGREES AT 350 PM  
TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 107 DEGREES SET IN  
1990 AND TIED AGAIN IN 1998. THE 111 DEGREES SETS THE ALL TIME RECORD  
HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR AMARILLO. THE OLD RECORD WAS 109 DEGREES SET ON  
JUNE 24TH 2011.  
  
THE HIGH TEMPERATURE IN BORGER REACHED 113 DEGREES AT 424 PM TODAY.  
THIS BREAKS THE RECORD HIGH OF 107 DEGREES SET IN 1998. THE 113  
DEGREES SETS THE ALL TIME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR BORGER. THE OLD  
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE WAS 108 DEGREES SET ON JUNE 24TH 2011.  
  
THE HIGH TEMPERATURE IN DALHART REACHED 110 DEGREES AT 423 PM TODAY.  
THIS BREAKS THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 104 DEGREES SET IN 1998.  
THE 110 DEGREES SETS AN ALL TIME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR DALHART.  
THE OLD RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE WAS 108 DEGREES SET ON JUNE 24TH  
2011.  

+++++++

There are no real changes needed to my forecast thinking this week. Enjoy Tuesday because it's going to get rather toasty here from WED through next weekend with highs in the 90-95 bracket and heat indices in the 100-105 territory for a few days. In continue to see signals of a stormier pattern (nighttime type events) heading towards the latter part of the holiday weekend.


Sorry the blog is so late today...now you know why. Have a great week and I'll update again on Tuesday

Joe

Yesterday I focused on the drought that was expanding across the southern plains states...so obviously today let's flip the coin and talk about the much discussed flooding concerns across the upper midwest and the MO River region. It's been something that we've been following quite a bit on the news and also within the weather department. The effects, thus far, haven't really been felt directly close by, with the exception of all the preparation that's been ongoing and the businesses that have paid a price for that preparation, especially in the Parkville area. Farther to the NW, up the river towards SE NE, SW IA and far NW MO, the news has not been as good. The MO River, not unexpectedly has been routinely now breaking through earthen levees and flooding 1000s of acres of farmland and sadly even some communities. These levee breaks are not a surprise. Trying to contain the flow of all that water as it gets higher and higher is a very difficult thing to do.

Farther upstream the release of water coming downstream @ Gavin's Point has slowly been increased over the last week or so. Earlier in the month the hope was that the flows would peak at close to 150,000 cfs. These numbers sound impressive in their own right...however the numbers mean more to the average person when you convert to gallons. Youo multiply that number by 7.5 to get to gallons/sec...then 60 for gallons/min then 60 again for gallons/hr then 24 for gallons/day. Now were talking about numbers that may interest you more. The latest information is that the Army Corps will be releasing more water than anticipated several weeks ago. Upwards of 160,000 cfs or 103,680,000,000...that's close to 103 BILLION gallons/day coming through the dam!

The new developments of the last couple of days concern what's been happening even farther north, up towards ND where Minot is flooding now. The Souris River that flows through there is now @ 1558.52' which breaks(!) a record going back to 1881. It has gone up close to 1 foot in the past couple of hours and will rise perhaps another 5-10 feet over the next 5 days or so...that's amazing! Interestingly that river DOES NOT flow into the MO River It actually flows NORTHWARDS into Canada! What also is amazing is how much precip they've had up there in teh last couple of months...take a look...

Some of the areas in E MT and W ND are in the 15-20+ range...so you combine that with the crazy amount of snowmelt going on up there in the higher elevations and that's a lot of water. How is this affecting Minot...take a look here.

So let's get back to the MO River...these levee breaches/breaks actually reduce the amount of water coming downstream towards the KC area. The MO River gauge @ Rulo, MO has been updated to show a 1 foot drop since the latest break in the levee upstream. It's a reduction of 60 cfs or 38,880,000 gallons/day coming downstream. The reduction, while minor is temporary. Should the levee be repaired and/or more water comes downstream the levels will increase. There is still a tremendous amount of uncertainty about just how bad things will get in the Parkville area. This is, unfortunately, something that just won't fade away int eh next couple of weeks. It's something that they will have to be vigilant about for the next 2+ months. All the while watching now for big t/storm complexes to create more issues up across the MO River basin. The season for those is just getting started now and will continue for the next 45 days or so.

Back to our weather...the models will have a difficult time handling the potential for storms over the next several days. However there are signals all over the place that we may be fighting additional overnight complexes in the region through Sunday. Here is the 84 hour forecast off the WRF...not overwhelming for amounts.

The highest totals are actually well to the north. The latest HI-RES WRF shows essentially the same thing...

Click on those images to make them larger.

The CAP will attempt to build in over the next couple of days...however there will be weaknesses in the cap what may allow some development through Sunday. The odds would favor areas to the north but I think the chance for the metro will certainly be there as well. Most of the weekend should be OK for outdoor activities however and you'll also notice an increase int he temperatures, it'll be a slow process but eventually we'll head back into the 90s. This will be a forecast that will evolve over the next few days as we track various boundaries that may be located near or close by for additional threats of storms.

I'll keep you updated all weekend...


Joe