Yesterday I focused on the drought that was expanding across the southern plains states...so obviously today let's flip the coin and talk about the much discussed flooding concerns across the upper midwest and the MO River region. It's been something that we've been following quite a bit on the news and also within the weather department. The effects, thus far, haven't really been felt directly close by, with the exception of all the preparation that's been ongoing and the businesses that have paid a price for that preparation, especially in the Parkville area. Farther to the NW, up the river towards SE NE, SW IA and far NW MO, the news has not been as good. The MO River, not unexpectedly has been routinely now breaking through earthen levees and flooding 1000s of acres of farmland and sadly even some communities. These levee breaks are not a surprise. Trying to contain the flow of all that water as it gets higher and higher is a very difficult thing to do.

Farther upstream the release of water coming downstream @ Gavin's Point has slowly been increased over the last week or so. Earlier in the month the hope was that the flows would peak at close to 150,000 cfs. These numbers sound impressive in their own right...however the numbers mean more to the average person when you convert to gallons. Youo multiply that number by 7.5 to get to gallons/sec...then 60 for gallons/min then 60 again for gallons/hr then 24 for gallons/day. Now were talking about numbers that may interest you more. The latest information is that the Army Corps will be releasing more water than anticipated several weeks ago. Upwards of 160,000 cfs or 103,680,000,000...that's close to 103 BILLION gallons/day coming through the dam!

The new developments of the last couple of days concern what's been happening even farther north, up towards ND where Minot is flooding now. The Souris River that flows through there is now @ 1558.52' which breaks(!) a record going back to 1881. It has gone up close to 1 foot in the past couple of hours and will rise perhaps another 5-10 feet over the next 5 days or so...that's amazing! Interestingly that river DOES NOT flow into the MO River It actually flows NORTHWARDS into Canada! What also is amazing is how much precip they've had up there in teh last couple of months...take a look...

Some of the areas in E MT and W ND are in the 15-20+ range...so you combine that with the crazy amount of snowmelt going on up there in the higher elevations and that's a lot of water. How is this affecting Minot...take a look here.

So let's get back to the MO River...these levee breaches/breaks actually reduce the amount of water coming downstream towards the KC area. The MO River gauge @ Rulo, MO has been updated to show a 1 foot drop since the latest break in the levee upstream. It's a reduction of 60 cfs or 38,880,000 gallons/day coming downstream. The reduction, while minor is temporary. Should the levee be repaired and/or more water comes downstream the levels will increase. There is still a tremendous amount of uncertainty about just how bad things will get in the Parkville area. This is, unfortunately, something that just won't fade away int eh next couple of weeks. It's something that they will have to be vigilant about for the next 2+ months. All the while watching now for big t/storm complexes to create more issues up across the MO River basin. The season for those is just getting started now and will continue for the next 45 days or so.

Back to our weather...the models will have a difficult time handling the potential for storms over the next several days. However there are signals all over the place that we may be fighting additional overnight complexes in the region through Sunday. Here is the 84 hour forecast off the WRF...not overwhelming for amounts.

The highest totals are actually well to the north. The latest HI-RES WRF shows essentially the same thing...

Click on those images to make them larger.

The CAP will attempt to build in over the next couple of days...however there will be weaknesses in the cap what may allow some development through Sunday. The odds would favor areas to the north but I think the chance for the metro will certainly be there as well. Most of the weekend should be OK for outdoor activities however and you'll also notice an increase int he temperatures, it'll be a slow process but eventually we'll head back into the 90s. This will be a forecast that will evolve over the next few days as we track various boundaries that may be located near or close by for additional threats of storms.

I'll keep you updated all weekend...


Joe