Well it's been awhile since I've blogged. I took a few days off last weekend after the seminar and am back at work now for a few more days. We're quickly coming into vacation season in the weather office and for the next several months our schedules will be a bit chaotic. So you'll see a lot of me and KR at different times compared to when we're fully staffed.

Before I get to the weather aspect of the blog itself, I just wanted to say thank you to those who spent part of their Saturday with us last Saturday for the quickly put together FOX 4 Weather The Storm seminar in support of tornado relief. We raised close to $1000 and had about 200 very big weather enthusiasts out there. The emails I've received have been fabulous and I'm very appreciative of the speakers time and content! We may try and do something again next year. Not sure about that at this point but it'll be something that we talk about during the winter. Trying to promote the seminar AND School Day at the K can be a handful so it's something that I will think about.

Now let's get to the weather which has been wonderful lately, especially considering the time ofo the year which we are now in. A lot of folks have been commenting about the great stretch and it will continue for another day or two as temperatures slowly creep upwards. One thing that can't be forgotten though is the amount of heat that continues to scorch and bake the southern plains states and while another weak front may move through early next week, there continue to be strong signals that the expansive heat that has been flirting with the plains states will be on the increase over the next 5-10 days or so. This is something that I've been concerned about since April as the drought has been increasing in size and intensity since that time.

Lets talk about the drought. This has been going on for months now. There are parts of W TX that haven't even had an inch of rain total since last fall. So far this year...Amarillo has had .68" (8" below avg) Dalhart has had .82", Midland has had .16"...and even though Corpus Christi has had close to 7"...they're about 7" below average. Brownsville has had 4". They average closer to 10" by now. Here is a map showing the extent of the drought...

Over the last 90 days you can seejust how dry they've been...a noted contrast tot he flooding woes of the northern Plains/Rockies. Pay attention to the anomalies.

80% of OK...97% of TX and 99% of NM are rated as short of very short on topsoil moisture supplies.



Here is a map showing the extent of the dryness/wetness over the course of the year so far...

Pretty rough for many parts of the south from the eastern Carolinas to to parts of FL and through the deep south.

My concern is that, short of a hurricane, this expansive area will continue to increase slowly but surely towards the north. We've been on the edge of this for the last couple of months. It seems just as we were going to teeter into this it backed off and we got some needed rainfall. The EURO model this PM is not too bullish, long term , on us getting that wet, very bullish on the heat. While the GFS model expands the midwest ridge and then retrogrades it back towards the Rockies putting us back into weak NW flow and keeping the core of the heat off towards the SW of here. It'll be interesting to see how this plays out...but IF we get into that ridge and it doesn't start breaking down by later next week...it may be a very hot July around these parts.

Out there now it's wonderful! Here is the latest map showing what's going on from a temperature standpoint.

You can really see the airmasses...and where we stand.

Eventually the storm that ushered in the cooler air will lift away early Saturday, this will allow the heat to try and move out way, as it does so the potential for t/storms will increase here for about a day or so. It looks like Sunday should be the drier of the 2 weekend days as the CAP tries and builds in. Saturday we'll be on the edge of this, so storms/rain are expected at some point SAT AM. Exactly where these complexes set up remains to be seen, but somebody in the region will be getting some decent rainfall. Wwe should head back into the 90s by Monday at the latest...and maybe 92-95 is a good potential there. One thing to remember, depending on the amount of wind, the grass has gotten pretty green again, and there is moisture that needs to bake out of the soil for us to really pop. Let's see how much rain we get on Saturday.



My last big event for awhile is coming up on Sunday...that would be the Duck Derby. A fundraiser for Children's TLC in KCMO. This will happen from 11-3PM down by Brush Creek @ the Country Club Plaza. Go here if you'd like to learn more about adopting some of those cute yellow rubber duckies that will be floating down the creek on Sunday afternoon!

Joe