Excessive Heat Watch In Effect...from Thursday through at least Saturday...if not longer depending on the temperatures...I'm shooting for 96 THU-FRI with a couple of degrees off those highs through the holiday weekend. The air aloft certainly would support higher values. My negatives from going to the extreme is 1) we need to get rid of a lot of moisture in the ground, although the farther SW you get the drier it has been over the last 5-10 days or so. 2) Winds...they will be favorable for maxing out on THU but less so on FRI...3) Dewpoints...somewhat lower on THU...but coming up FRI-SUN as the surface winds drop off. Model data suggests 100-106...

Regardless the Heat Index should easily be above 100, if not close to 110. Remember those numbers represent the temperatures in the SHADE...in the sunshine add 10-20 and on  the pavement add more compared to the grass. It's going to be nasty out there for quite some time after tomorrow.

Rain chances look minimal...perhaps a few strays tomorrow on the KS side...then we'll be watching a front over the weekend that should belly up towards the IA border. While the season has seen, at times, the cap breaking, i.e. SUN night/MON AM...it may hold a bit stronger with less forcing this weekend. We'll need to see IF storms develop...there would be the potential for an outflow to be generated and move our way altering the forecast considerable later in the weekend.


The seasons 1st TROPICAL STORM has formed in the Atlantic/Gulf Basin. Arlene is her name and will bring heavy rainfall to Mexico and potentially S TX...this could be a good thing for the drought situation down there that I've blogged about for awhile! Here is the forecast motion...

Very disorganized looking. Arlene is forecast to intensify over the next couple of days with very slow motion

Rainfall forecast per the HPC...

Back to our weather...I noticed something over the weekend on the VISIBLE satellite pictures that was confirmed for me by one of my friends @ the NWS...take a look at the picture...

Notice up across NW MO...just east of the State Line. See the absence of clouds. Notice the orientation of the clear area compared to the cloud filled regions east and west of the clear slot. Now what int he world could possibly cause this to happen? The same phenomena that causing so much consternation up there now...the flooding and the expanse of the MO River. The river has become so large that it's having an influence. locally on the temperatures. The heat of the sun, bakes the land areas and cause the temperature to go up faster, on this date (SAT) that created cloud cover where the heat was maximized...however the sun's energy is absorbed by the water, and since expanse of water is larger that normal, this kept temperatures immediately around the water area cooler. The lack of heating by comparison kept the clouds from forming. So now the MO River is actually creating it's own microclimate up there given certain weather conditions!

Meanwhile on the flip side...check out this information from AccuWeather...fascinating...I remember seeing these extremes a month or two ago in W TX and NM as well...


The National Weather Service in Las Vegas, Nevada issued a statement yesterday saying they had reached a record "dew point depression" of 129 degrees (or: low humidity of 1%) when their temperature was 107 with a dew point of -22 F.

They explain on their Facebook Page:

"Las Vegas' largest dew point depression ever recorded was set on June 27, 2011 at 129 degrees. The dew point depression is the difference between the air temperature and dew point temperature. At this time the relative humidity was 1%. The previous record dew point depression was 120 degrees set on July 2, 2007. This makes June 27, 2011 the driest day ever based on the dew point depression!"

You can't see the maximum depression on the official data graph above, where data only updates once an hour, but they posted a picture of the 1-minute data on their Facebook Page:

Relative humidity readings below 10% were widespread over the Southwest yesterday, though the KLAS airport was the driest I could find on the Mesonet map.

Joe

It's funny...if I was playing golf this afternoon and walking the course like I usually try to do for the exercise, it turns out to be close to 5-6 miles when you're done by the way, I would've had a lot of water, sweated a bit and been OK...

Today I helped the folks @ Children's TLC (Therapeutic Learning Center) with their annual Duck Derby. They've been kind enough to have me and FOX 4 involved for several years now and today was the big dropping of some 15000 ducks into Brush Creek @ the Plaza. The issue of the day was the winds, which were persistently for the AM and early PM having an SE component. This meant that for the first time in memory during the Derby, the waters of Brush Creek were going the opposite way. So after all these years of the ducks traveling from W>E...today they decided to go from E>W. So the hundreds/thousands of folks who attended the event and were accustomed to the ducks going one way, and had their seats set up, now had to reverse course. So I started walking all over the place telling the folks about the soon to be reversal of the duck motion. Between all waling,up and down, the heat and our KC humidity I started pouring out sweat. I was drinking a lot of water but when you need to be on the air a couple of hours later, you know it won't be pretty! After a few hours of A/C I'm finally cooling off, there may be some ice cream in my future tonight though IF I get everything done in time...including this weather blog! Here are some pictures of the Duck Race!

So as far as that weather goes...we made it to near 90 today with heat indices near 100. There were some 75-78 dewpoints running around this afternoon as our much heralded warm front lurched north of KC...here is the latest sat pic and weather set-up...

The moisture from the south is feeding a large developing complex of storms across the upper midwest. This complex will continue it's SE movement with perhaps a SSE shift as the night evolves and should ride the edge of a strong CAP which has built into the region....

That complex in NE Nebraska needs to be watched. For the metro, we'll need to watch the tail of that thing, stretching towards the I-80 corridor for our potential in the wee hours of MON AM.

There is some cool air behind that complex of storms, that will move in tomorrow afternoon as a cold front moves through. We should be pretty capped ahead of the front, so assuming the storms NOW in NE don't hit the metro, it's possible the front will come through dry. Areas farther SE from KC should see storms fire in the PM tomorrow, potentially some severe weather down towards the Lakes area through SE KS.

That heat in the southern plains is amazing. Amarillo which hit their ALL-TIME record high of 109 degrees FRIDAY..saw that record shattered TODAY...wow!!!!!

ALL TIME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES SET IN AMARILLO  
BORGER  
AND DALHART TODAY...  
  
THE HIGH TEMPERATURE IN AMARILLO REACHED 111 DEGREES AT 350 PM  
TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 107 DEGREES SET IN  
1990 AND TIED AGAIN IN 1998. THE 111 DEGREES SETS THE ALL TIME RECORD  
HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR AMARILLO. THE OLD RECORD WAS 109 DEGREES SET ON  
JUNE 24TH 2011.  
  
THE HIGH TEMPERATURE IN BORGER REACHED 113 DEGREES AT 424 PM TODAY.  
THIS BREAKS THE RECORD HIGH OF 107 DEGREES SET IN 1998. THE 113  
DEGREES SETS THE ALL TIME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR BORGER. THE OLD  
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE WAS 108 DEGREES SET ON JUNE 24TH 2011.  
  
THE HIGH TEMPERATURE IN DALHART REACHED 110 DEGREES AT 423 PM TODAY.  
THIS BREAKS THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 104 DEGREES SET IN 1998.  
THE 110 DEGREES SETS AN ALL TIME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR DALHART.  
THE OLD RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE WAS 108 DEGREES SET ON JUNE 24TH  
2011.  

+++++++

There are no real changes needed to my forecast thinking this week. Enjoy Tuesday because it's going to get rather toasty here from WED through next weekend with highs in the 90-95 bracket and heat indices in the 100-105 territory for a few days. In continue to see signals of a stormier pattern (nighttime type events) heading towards the latter part of the holiday weekend.


Sorry the blog is so late today...now you know why. Have a great week and I'll update again on Tuesday

Joe

Yesterday I focused on the drought that was expanding across the southern plains states...so obviously today let's flip the coin and talk about the much discussed flooding concerns across the upper midwest and the MO River region. It's been something that we've been following quite a bit on the news and also within the weather department. The effects, thus far, haven't really been felt directly close by, with the exception of all the preparation that's been ongoing and the businesses that have paid a price for that preparation, especially in the Parkville area. Farther to the NW, up the river towards SE NE, SW IA and far NW MO, the news has not been as good. The MO River, not unexpectedly has been routinely now breaking through earthen levees and flooding 1000s of acres of farmland and sadly even some communities. These levee breaks are not a surprise. Trying to contain the flow of all that water as it gets higher and higher is a very difficult thing to do.

Farther upstream the release of water coming downstream @ Gavin's Point has slowly been increased over the last week or so. Earlier in the month the hope was that the flows would peak at close to 150,000 cfs. These numbers sound impressive in their own right...however the numbers mean more to the average person when you convert to gallons. Youo multiply that number by 7.5 to get to gallons/sec...then 60 for gallons/min then 60 again for gallons/hr then 24 for gallons/day. Now were talking about numbers that may interest you more. The latest information is that the Army Corps will be releasing more water than anticipated several weeks ago. Upwards of 160,000 cfs or 103,680,000,000...that's close to 103 BILLION gallons/day coming through the dam!

The new developments of the last couple of days concern what's been happening even farther north, up towards ND where Minot is flooding now. The Souris River that flows through there is now @ 1558.52' which breaks(!) a record going back to 1881. It has gone up close to 1 foot in the past couple of hours and will rise perhaps another 5-10 feet over the next 5 days or so...that's amazing! Interestingly that river DOES NOT flow into the MO River It actually flows NORTHWARDS into Canada! What also is amazing is how much precip they've had up there in teh last couple of months...take a look...

Some of the areas in E MT and W ND are in the 15-20+ range...so you combine that with the crazy amount of snowmelt going on up there in the higher elevations and that's a lot of water. How is this affecting Minot...take a look here.

So let's get back to the MO River...these levee breaches/breaks actually reduce the amount of water coming downstream towards the KC area. The MO River gauge @ Rulo, MO has been updated to show a 1 foot drop since the latest break in the levee upstream. It's a reduction of 60 cfs or 38,880,000 gallons/day coming downstream. The reduction, while minor is temporary. Should the levee be repaired and/or more water comes downstream the levels will increase. There is still a tremendous amount of uncertainty about just how bad things will get in the Parkville area. This is, unfortunately, something that just won't fade away int eh next couple of weeks. It's something that they will have to be vigilant about for the next 2+ months. All the while watching now for big t/storm complexes to create more issues up across the MO River basin. The season for those is just getting started now and will continue for the next 45 days or so.

Back to our weather...the models will have a difficult time handling the potential for storms over the next several days. However there are signals all over the place that we may be fighting additional overnight complexes in the region through Sunday. Here is the 84 hour forecast off the WRF...not overwhelming for amounts.

The highest totals are actually well to the north. The latest HI-RES WRF shows essentially the same thing...

Click on those images to make them larger.

The CAP will attempt to build in over the next couple of days...however there will be weaknesses in the cap what may allow some development through Sunday. The odds would favor areas to the north but I think the chance for the metro will certainly be there as well. Most of the weekend should be OK for outdoor activities however and you'll also notice an increase int he temperatures, it'll be a slow process but eventually we'll head back into the 90s. This will be a forecast that will evolve over the next few days as we track various boundaries that may be located near or close by for additional threats of storms.

I'll keep you updated all weekend...


Joe

Well it's been awhile since I've blogged. I took a few days off last weekend after the seminar and am back at work now for a few more days. We're quickly coming into vacation season in the weather office and for the next several months our schedules will be a bit chaotic. So you'll see a lot of me and KR at different times compared to when we're fully staffed.

Before I get to the weather aspect of the blog itself, I just wanted to say thank you to those who spent part of their Saturday with us last Saturday for the quickly put together FOX 4 Weather The Storm seminar in support of tornado relief. We raised close to $1000 and had about 200 very big weather enthusiasts out there. The emails I've received have been fabulous and I'm very appreciative of the speakers time and content! We may try and do something again next year. Not sure about that at this point but it'll be something that we talk about during the winter. Trying to promote the seminar AND School Day at the K can be a handful so it's something that I will think about.

Now let's get to the weather which has been wonderful lately, especially considering the time ofo the year which we are now in. A lot of folks have been commenting about the great stretch and it will continue for another day or two as temperatures slowly creep upwards. One thing that can't be forgotten though is the amount of heat that continues to scorch and bake the southern plains states and while another weak front may move through early next week, there continue to be strong signals that the expansive heat that has been flirting with the plains states will be on the increase over the next 5-10 days or so. This is something that I've been concerned about since April as the drought has been increasing in size and intensity since that time.

Lets talk about the drought. This has been going on for months now. There are parts of W TX that haven't even had an inch of rain total since last fall. So far this year...Amarillo has had .68" (8" below avg) Dalhart has had .82", Midland has had .16"...and even though Corpus Christi has had close to 7"...they're about 7" below average. Brownsville has had 4". They average closer to 10" by now. Here is a map showing the extent of the drought...

Over the last 90 days you can seejust how dry they've been...a noted contrast tot he flooding woes of the northern Plains/Rockies. Pay attention to the anomalies.

80% of OK...97% of TX and 99% of NM are rated as short of very short on topsoil moisture supplies.



Here is a map showing the extent of the dryness/wetness over the course of the year so far...

Pretty rough for many parts of the south from the eastern Carolinas to to parts of FL and through the deep south.

My concern is that, short of a hurricane, this expansive area will continue to increase slowly but surely towards the north. We've been on the edge of this for the last couple of months. It seems just as we were going to teeter into this it backed off and we got some needed rainfall. The EURO model this PM is not too bullish, long term , on us getting that wet, very bullish on the heat. While the GFS model expands the midwest ridge and then retrogrades it back towards the Rockies putting us back into weak NW flow and keeping the core of the heat off towards the SW of here. It'll be interesting to see how this plays out...but IF we get into that ridge and it doesn't start breaking down by later next week...it may be a very hot July around these parts.

Out there now it's wonderful! Here is the latest map showing what's going on from a temperature standpoint.

You can really see the airmasses...and where we stand.

Eventually the storm that ushered in the cooler air will lift away early Saturday, this will allow the heat to try and move out way, as it does so the potential for t/storms will increase here for about a day or so. It looks like Sunday should be the drier of the 2 weekend days as the CAP tries and builds in. Saturday we'll be on the edge of this, so storms/rain are expected at some point SAT AM. Exactly where these complexes set up remains to be seen, but somebody in the region will be getting some decent rainfall. Wwe should head back into the 90s by Monday at the latest...and maybe 92-95 is a good potential there. One thing to remember, depending on the amount of wind, the grass has gotten pretty green again, and there is moisture that needs to bake out of the soil for us to really pop. Let's see how much rain we get on Saturday.



My last big event for awhile is coming up on Sunday...that would be the Duck Derby. A fundraiser for Children's TLC in KCMO. This will happen from 11-3PM down by Brush Creek @ the Country Club Plaza. Go here if you'd like to learn more about adopting some of those cute yellow rubber duckies that will be floating down the creek on Sunday afternoon!

Joe

Well the rain has just about quit for the metro as I type this...temperatures before the rain made it well through the 70s then dropped into the 60s with the rainfall and will now creep back up a few degrees as the clouds start to thin out as our dying complex of storms moves/fades away. The rainfall was welcome by most and there were some 1"+ totals running around. For the most part in metro...totals are under .50"...and many seem to be closer to .25 as an average around the metro area...KCI through 1PM has had .05" and Lees Summit is closer to .17" through 1PM. St Joe only had .06". So any moisture at this point is welcome...but certainly for most of the region, not exactly a tremendous soaking of rainfall.

There will be other opportunities for the next several days in my opinion. The complex for today has laid down a boundary of rain cooled air that has spread all the way down through S KS. By early tomorrow morning, strong winds of close to 55 MPH will be overrunning that boundary. Surface temperatures across the southern plains are well into the 90s/100s so a lot of heat/moisture will be sitting down there. The strong low-level winds will help to create rising air over the boundary that may turn into more storms...especially from I-70 northwards tomorrow AM. We will be capping up tomorrow AM...but the chance will certainly be there for a few hours tomorrow AM...also SAT and SUN AM. So while the exact placements of these clusters is tough to figure out at this point...the models are telling me that the potential is certainly there for some activity through W MO and E KS...Sunday AM looks like the better chances at this point in time. Most of the afternoons are looking OK at this point with temperatures heading upwards from 85-95 in the region.

Monday should be the quiet day and then a stronger disturbance will roll through with a nice cold front on Tuesday. There will be the potential for severe weather with that next disturbance and front...probably a squall line of sorts for Tuesday into TUE evening assuming the front slows down a bit. Should the front blow through here quicker on Tuesday then we may not get as unstable...5 days down the road to watch though.

I've finalized the last details pretty much on the FOX 4 Weathering The Storm Seminar to be held This Saturday. All the details can be found here. Scroll towards the bottom for specifics...in terms of presenters, here is the finalized list for you in the order they should appear.

FOX 4 “WEATHERING THE STORM”

A Benefit for Storm Relief

Agenda

Welcome (Mike Thompson)

Reviewing 2011 Video (Joe Lauria-Jeff Piotrowski)

Are You Properly Prepared? (Bob Brown-AFI)

Anxiety Issues & Severe Weather (Catherine Sterchi)

Red Cross (Patrick Sallee)

5-10 Minute Break

Thunderstorm Basics/Spotting/Safety (Andy Bailey)

Situational Awareness & Storm Spotting (Chris Novy)

Panel Discussion & Your Questions

Again in case you hadn't heard, we were hoping to have Reed Timmer as part of the show, but since the production on his TV show for the Discover Channel got extended, he became unavailable. Regardless, we're chock full of material and videos to show all the attendees.

My friend, Meteorologist Bruce Thomas, whom some of you may remember from Channel 5 back in the day, and who now works for Midland radio will be dropping off several of the latest and greatest weather radios that are now doing amazing things. We will be handing them out as door prizes on Saturday. In addition we'll be feeding all of the attendees free Krispy Kreme donuts, while supplies last. Again get there before 9AM to guarantee a great seat!

Also several members of the KC chapter of the American Meteorological Society (AMS) will be in attendance. This group is helping to co-sponsor our event and for those who have an interest/hobby with weather and are fascinated by it as much as I am, feel free to give me your email address at the show and I'll get you on the email list concerning future meeting that will be held in the fall.

Joe

The beginning of this weather blog will be dedicated to what's going to happen @ the FOX 4 Weathering The Storm Seminar coming up on Saturday June 18th, starting @ 9:00 (be there earlier). Tickets are free but we're asking for a $5 donation to our Project Storm Relief which is supporting rebuilding efforts int he Joplin/Sedalia/Reading, KS areas. Since I'm getting more and more calls about it, and emails I thought this venue might be a bit easier to get all the thoughts together....

Here are the details...

WHEN: Saturday, June 18th @ 9AM

WHERE: Union Station's Extreme Screen Theater (holds 450 with extra room for standing, if needed)

HOW LONG: We're saying till at least NOON...I think closer to 12:30

TICKETS: 1st Come...1st Serve...that's why you want to be there earlier for best seats

VENUE: For those who have never been, the inside of the theater has rows of seats that go vertical pretty significantly...it's not a typical movie theater

SPEAKERS: Here is a list/subjects thus far...

1) An insurance representative talking about making sure you are set from a home insurance standpoint. Not all home insurance policies are the same and there are pitfalls that you can avoid should the worst happen.
2) A child psychologist talking about ideas and ways of helping your children overcome their fears concerning severe weather events. I can't tell you how many calls I've taken concerning this matter over the years.
3) Red Cross representative addressing their needs and what your donation will go towards.
4) Chris Novy (SKYWARN Training) Chris is going to talk about being aware of the hazards around you during severe weather events. You'll laugh at times when he's talking seeing some of the dumb things people who are out chasing storms do. He's fabulous if you're interested in severe weather spotting.
5) Andy Bailey (National Weather Service-[Pleasant Hill]). Andy will be talking about the basics of spotting and identifying severe thunderstorms as well as covering storm safety for families.
6) Reed Timmer (Storm Chasers-Discover Channel) Reed has had a busy spring as usual crisscrossing a lot of territory east of the Rockies looking for tornadic storms. He will be showing a video recap of the tornados in the SE part of the country as well as events here in the midwest.
7) A Panel discussion/Q & A period will finish off the program

Note that after each speaker there will be time for questions as well...we realize that you may have a lot of questions about what has happened this year and we want to try to ease your fears/concerns as much as possible if that is an issue for you.

I'm getting more and more excited about what we've put together in just the last 2 weeks. There will also be videos and a pamphlet distributed with additional web site information.

We'll hopefully see you there!

OK onto the weather...in a nutshell have a plan B ready for Sunday...

The first front poked into the region this AM and has just about dissolved while the real front is up towards the north of the metro. Here is the latest surface map showing that the real front is north of KC...

Click on that image to make it larger...

The atmosphere is somewhat worked over but there are areas of convergence out there from the boundries left over from the AM storms/showers that moved through. We're pretty capped but we'll need to watch for the potential of additional development later this PM and evening, in a scattered nature. The front should really push through later this evening ending those chances.

Tomorrow looks fabulous.

Another disturbance heads this way later SAT night and SUN...this should trigger a large complex of storms with the potential for a decent+ rain (1-2+") across parts of the area during the 1st part, maybe even through lunch on Sunday. That's the Plan B (if needed) day.

We should lurch back into the hot air on Monday with highs back into the 90s for a couple of days.

The other item to note is what happened last night on the south side of the metro. A decaying area of t/storms
created strong winds. Similar to the events int he Wichita area, but not as extreme, these collapsing storms created a heat burst. I probably had 50 MPH winds and saw the temperature rise about 5+ degrees while my humidity dropped off considerably. Others had winds close to 60 MPH (Gardner/Edgerton) and there was a report of a 10+ degree spike in temps near Wellsville, KS. Here is a history report from the airport in Olathe...showing the event somewhat...

The area circled represents the heat burst...not dramatic at the airport from a temperature standpoint but you can really see the dewpoints crashing then popping back up.

Very interesting indeed...there were more than a few reports of trees damaged/blown down and power lines down in a few areas on the south side late last night. Here is another explainer on the phenomena that occurred.

Have a great weekend.

Joe

Reminder about the FOX 4 Weathering The Storm Seminar @ Union Station's Extreme Theater on Saturday the 18th from 9AM to about Noon. A benefit for the Tornado Victims in MO/KS. 1st come...1st serve, tickets are free but we're asking for a $5 donation to Project Storm Relief. Speakers include Chris Novy (SKYWARN Spotting), Andy Bailey from the NWS and Reed Timmer (Stormchasers show on Discovery Network). Others are planned. Love to see you out there!

Weatherwise...storms/showers have been percolating across the N MO area and parts of NE KS all morning...weakening now...as the atmosphere, especially to the N/NE and NW of KC starts to slowly reload. There is a boundary separating the cool air 50s-70s and the hotter more oppressive air 80s-90s snaking to the N/NW of KC. The higher chances of storms (potentially severe) still looks to be NE KS and N MO...especially along and north of 36 highway. We'll need to watch those storms this evening and overnight as they may tug some of the cooler air farther and faster southwards. Regardless that cooler air will make it here tomorrow and last through the weekend. 70s are possible SAT/SUN with the potential of 60s(!) on SUN should we have a decent t/storm complex move through during the day.

For the rest of the day...here is the latest weather map...quite the spread in temperatures, and you add in a piece of upper level energy, across the western plains states moving towards the ENE and the potential is there for rapid storm development. The storms that do form would probably move towards the ENE and maybe NE...while the whole mass moves slowly towards the East.

Click on that image to make it larger.

The SPC has put areas from KC northwards under a slight risk of severe weather. The areas farthest to the N/NW should have a somewhat heightened chance of some rotating storms that would have a higher hail and potentially tornadic threat associated with them. At this point we're still focused on NW MO and NE/NC KS for that potential. Here are the SPC thoughts....

and there tornado potential...again somewhat elevated but the 5% means a 5% chance of a tornado report within 25 miles of a given point...something to watch for should the storms fire up before sunset.

The heat is a story here...but also back east where record highs have been tumbling like crazy. Today more record heat has been reported in Atlantic City, NJ (101), Newark, NJ (101), Wilmington, DE (97) and Baltimore (100). Yesterday there were some 300 records including some smaller communities. here are the reports from yesterday from the more major communities...

Bluefield WV 90F
Marquette MI 90F tied 2004
Sturgeon Bay WI 90F
Binghamton NY 91F
Burlington VT 91F tied 2008
Mt Pocono PA 91F
Rhinelander WI 91F tied 2000
Erie PA 92F
Jackson KY 92F
London KY 92F tied 2008
Albany NY 93F tied 1984
Green Bay WI 93F
Lansing MI 93F
Milwaukee WI 93F tied 1933
Wausau WI 93F
Allentown PA 96F
Nashville TN 96F tied 1963
Reading PA 96F
LaGuardia NY 97F
Naples FL 97F
Philadelphia PA 97F
Syracruse NY 97F
St Louis MO 97F
Ft Wayne IN 97F
Atlantic City NJ 98F tied 1999
Baltimore MD 99F
Newark NJ 99F
Washington National DC 99F
Midland TX 105F
Also of note earlier this AM was a "Heat Burst" that occurred in the Wichita area between 12 and 1AM. A heat burst, isn't that rare...and typically will happen a few+ times across the US each late Spring and Summer.
The temperature went from about 82 to near 102 and winds were gusting to close to 50 MPH as this happened. Very impressive and neat to see!


Also in the Pacific Ocean the seasons 1st Hurricane has formed...and it's considered a major hurricane at that! Take a look...

and now something a little more close-up!

Very impressive storm for sure...that thankfully should not threaten any significant land masses...

Well that ought to do it for a busy Thursday afternoon of blogging....have a great day and we'll see you tomorrow. Again for NW MO and NE KS let's keep a more careful eye on the sky!


Joe

Well temperatures right now are in the lower 90s around the region and with dewpoints in the mid-upper 60s it's another somewhat uncomfortable day out there...there is wind though, gusting close to 30 or so MPH so maybe a tad bit of relief out there in that department. The other noteworthy thing is that there continues to be a lot of smoke out there, although it is thinning somewhat compared to earlier this AM. This is a result of wildfires buring in E AZ, in particular the Wallow fire which has charred some 400,000 acres thus far and it's still burning. This is now the second largest wildfire in AZ. When I looked at the visible pictures yesterday, you clearly saw the plume of smoke moving through the plains states...it was really thick yesterday across central and western KS...and while much thinner today I still think it has made a 1-2 degree difference in our potential highs for the afternoon. Plus we also now have a S/SSW wind and not a SW wind...this too while hot is not as hot as the potential. Here is a look at today's visible pictures...

You can clearly see the smoke, represented by that hazy look to the skies. Also notice where it is thicker, towards the S/SE of the metro...here is another satellite photo to look at...

Again that ribbon of smoke is clearly seen.

Take a look at where all this is coming from...while large for sure, inthe big scheme of the country, it's not covering a ton of real estate, but boy is there a lot of smoke...

The newspaper in Phoenix has a great(!) animation showing the scope of the fire over the last week or so, you can really get an idea how the fire has spread...take a look at it!


OK...lets now talk about our rain chances....for some the word rain might be a four letter word, since many upstream are concerned about flooding. many though want a free drink of water for the grass/crops that might be getting a bit stressed from this heat and dry weather for the last week or so. As a matter of fact a quick check of the past 1st 8 days of June reveals that this is the hottest start (highs wise) since 1972...almost 40 years. There is relief though showing up...when it gets here is a good question because it's not too far away. Here is the latest map showing how close that cold front is to the region...

This front has a very nice spread in temperatures associated with it...however the atmosphere above us is currently capped and while some activity can't be ruled out towards the NW/N of the metro, closer to the IA/NE border, the amount of activity may be more of a thin line of storms as opposed to a massive squall line. That may not be enough to push the front into our area tonight...so as a result we sort of do the whole thing over again tomorrow and hope we can get some activity to give that front a bit more of a southwards push. then depending on where the front stalls our rain chances may vary be location on Friday. Regardless at this point Saturday looks OK, again we'll be watching for where the front ends up, then as the front which should be pushed to our south, retreats northwards on Sunday, along with a potential ripple in the flow Sunday Morning, the potential for additional t/storms will exist to finish off the weekend. There is the potential for a real sneaky cool day in there, depending on the timing of all these possible storm scenarios. The "cool" air should move into the region on Friday as a surface wave pulls through sometime during the day allowing for more of a sustained N/NW wind for a period of time.

A very complicated forecast to say the least...

Joe

TONIGHT FOX 4 WILL BE ANNOUNCING A SPECIAL WEATHERING THE STORM SEMINAR THAT WILL TAKE PLACE @ UNION STATION. THIS SEMINAR WILL FEATURE SPEAKERS FROM AROUND THE COUNTRY TALKING ABOUT THE TORNADO SEASON OF 2011. THERE WILL ALSO BE A CLASS TEACHING OUR VIEWERS HOW TO SPOT AND REPORT SEVERE WEATHER. WE ALSO ARE HOPING THAT REED TIMMER FROM THE DISCOVERY SHOW STORMCHASERS WILL BE THERE SHOWING HIS WORK SO FAR THIS SEASON INCLUDING THE HISTORIC SOUTHEAST TORNADO OUTBREAK. SPEAKERS MAY ALSO INCLUDE AN INSURANCE ADVISER AND A CHILD PSYCHOLOGIST TO ASSIST FAMILIES THAT HAVE CONCERNS ABOUT STORM RELATED ISSUES. DETAILS WILL BE ANNOUNCED ON THE NEWS STARTING TONIGHT AND FOR THE NEXT 2 WEEKS.

THIS SEMINAR WILL BE HELD ON SATURDAY JUNE 18TH @ 9AM AND LAST TILL ABOUT NOON. IT WILL BE HELD @ THE UNION STATION IMAX THEATER. THE SEMINAR IS FREE FOR OUR VIEWERS AND WE'RE ASKING FOR A $5 DONATION THAT WILL GO TO STORM AID, WHICH IS OUR CONDUIT TO THE RED CROSS AND ASSISTING THE FOLKS IN JOPLIN/READING RECOVER FROM THE STORMS.

AGAIN ADDITIONAL DETAILS WILL BE FORTHCOMING...BUT PUT IT ON YOUR CALENDAR.

Now on to the sensible weather...did you know that through yesterday there have been over 250 record highs in the USA...mostly across the SE and Eastern part of the country...pretty impressive.

All those dots represent record highs per NOAA. Many of those records pertain to COOP stations so the years of record keeping may not be overly high...but still interesting none the less.
 
Another tidbit...information coming in from the NWS in Boston indicates that the tornado that struck the Springfield, MA area was rated "at least" an EF3 with winds  at least 136 MPH...typically when they use wording such as "at least" they then bring in some other experts or look even closer to evaluate whether or not in jumped categories into EF4 status. There is some pretty impressive video running around of that tornado. Take a look here. You can really see the wind stream effects with the tornado moving across the Connecticut River...very interesting to watch. Here is another one to look at.

Weather wise around here there is not a lot to talk about. We've hit at least 90 and may tack on another couple before the afternoon is done. as mentioned yesterday we should be around 90, give or take a few degrees, for the foreseeable future. We're crazy capped today with the morning sounding indicating that the mid level temperatures are close to 60 degrees. They may come down a few degrees over the weekend while a weak boundary oozes into the MO/IA border area. These boundaries are always concerning with 90+ heat and while the dewpoints may not be crazy high, there will be a lot of instability out there. The winds will be dropping off over the weekend as well...so the air won't be as "mixed up" as today. That could cause a minor increase in the dewpoints making things feel a bit more uncomfortable. The NAM model actually is breaking out precip along and north of the 36 highway corridor in N MO...those scenarios have to be watched because depending on the amount/coverage and intensity of the storms there is the potential for some sort of rain cooled airmass to sag southwards or southeastwards and trigger additional storm development. The storms would be heavy rain producers with the potential of some hail as well should things get fired up over the weekend. Just keep this in the back of your mind for the next couple of days. We also should see additional sunshine for the early part of next week without dealing with convective debris cloud cover.

That's about all for today. Over the weekend I'll talk a bit about the new Hurricane Season that started a couple of days ago.

Joe

One Isolated Storm

TONIGHT FOX 4 WILL BE ANNOUNCING A SPECIAL WEATHERING THE STORM SEMINAR THAT WILL TAKE PLACE @ UNION STATION. THIS SEMINAR WILL FEATURE SPEAKERS FROM AROUND THE COUNTRY TALKING ABOUT THE TORNADO SEASON OF 2011. THERE WILL ALSO BE A CLASS TEACHING OUR VIEWERS HOW TO SPOT AND REPORT SEVERE WEATHER. WE ALSO ARE HOPING THAT REED TIMMER FROM THE DISCOVERY SHOW STORMCHASERS WILL BE THERE SHOWING HIS WORK SO FAR THIS SEASON INCLUDING THE HISTORIC SOUTHEAST TORNADO OUTBREAK. SPEAKERS MAY ALSO INCLUDE AN INSURANCE ADVISER AND A CHILD PSYCHOLOGIST TO ASSIST FAMILIES THAT HAVE CONCERNS ABOUT STORM RELATED ISSUES. DETAILS WILL BE ANNOUNCED ON THE NEWS STARTING TONIGHT AND FOR THE NEXT 2 WEEKS.

THIS SEMINAR WILL BE HELD ON SATURDAY JUNE 18TH @ 9AM AND LAST TILL ABOUT NOON. IT WILL BE HELD @ THE UNION STATION IMAX THEATER. THE SEMINAR IS FREE FOR OUR VIEWERS AND WE'RE ASKING FOR A $5 DONATION THAT WILL GO TO STORM AID, WHICH IS OUR CONDUIT TO THE RED CROSS AND ASSISTING THE FOLKS IN JOPLIN RECOVER FROM THE STORM.

AGAIN ADDITIONAL DETAILS WILL BE FORTHCOMING...BUT PUT IT ON YOUR CALENDAR.


All is quiet around the area this afternoon as the heat and humidity continue to build through the middle part of the country. While lots of clouds have filtered the sunshine today keeping temperatures in the 80s, humidity levels have increased enough that it's not too pleasant out there. Dewpoints are tipping into the 70s and heat indicies are 90-95. Numbers that will go up over the next few days. The clouds were created by t/storm complexes last night that basically dissolved on top of us earlier this AM. The resultant clouds were slow to thin, which is not unusual for these situations so temperatures were held into the 80s. Tomorrow we won't have the benefit all the clouds and temperatures aloft and here on the ground will respond with highs surging into the lower 90s with heat indices near 100!

The weather story for the foreseeable future will be the heat and humidity. As I expected last weekend, it would take about 5 days for the 90s to get here. Tomorrow looks to be day 1 and once we hit it, we should stay in the 86-93 range for quite some time as a ridge aloft builds through the middle part of the country. IF this was July and the grass had gone dormant and the vegetation wasn't as lush, we'd be talking about highs near 100. Certainly from an upper level standpoint, even from observing the the temperatures @ about 5000 feet, we'd get there. However given the vegetation as well as the moisture content of the air, a few degrees either side of 90 should do it.

Take a look at the GFS forecast for the next several days...these represent temperatures at 5000 feet or so.

The time period is from late Saturday through early Monday. That is some pretty toasty stuff at that level

There may be some areas that can max out near 95 out of that temperature profile especially if the winds stir up the atmosphere enough.

Rain chances are more fleeting but can't totally be ruled out. There will be some sort of boundary lurking across the IA/MO border area over the weekend. We'll be somewhat capped but not overly so. That boundary should light up with storms. Then the issue is whether or not any outflow boundary can push far enough southwards. These things are near impossible to figure out from this far away but something that can't be totally ruled out.

One thing for sure the first 10-15 days of the month look to be well above average for the month of June.

Joe