What a crazy day. I participated in the Douglas County Severe Weather Symposium for most of the morning and early afternoon. I presented a talk concerning the research I did a few years ago, about what would happen if the tornados that affected the Greensburg, KS region hit the KC Metro area. Using GIS data I came up with some stunning results.

About 200-250 people were there. I promised them a link to see whether or not the modified tornado tracks that occurred would've been in your neighborhood. Take a look at the data

As all this was being juggled, we then had a Severe T/Storm Watch issued for a few of our far southern counties, and then even a couple of warnings for the metro. This sent the various Emergency Managers scrambling to their work duties. I was at the same time talking our folks through a computer reboot for our symbol that was on the bottom of the screen during the T/storms. For the most part...it looks like the hail that did fall in a few areas was generally quarter sized or less. Although farther to the SW, golfball sized hail was reported near Cottonwood Falls, KS (near Emporia). Anyway a crazy weather/job wise day today. Rainfall was pretty moderate and persistent for a few hours. Rainfall amounts were generally in the .10-.50" range with perhaps a couple of higher isolated totals. KCI has had .45" through 7PM with some additional rain on the way, although not to the extent of those later AM and PM totals so far today.

We are going to surge into the warmer air tomorrow AM I think. The warm front is now down towards the Red River area...

It should rapidly be moving northwards towards daybreak tomorrow and zip through the region placing our area firmly in the warm sector tomorrow through Tuesday. One fly in the ointment for Monday is whether or not the warm front which will move north of the area tomorrow, sags back towards N MO Monday as a surface low tries and turns the winds in part of the area more towards the east. This developing area of Low Pressure will intensify Tuesday through the plains and then force the warm air back northwards again. There is a bust potential to the temperatures on Monday.

Regardless we should be back in the warmer & more humid airmass on Tuesday, with dewpoints in the 55-60 range expected. With a Low in the plains and a cold front moving into the area just after peak heating, and whatever cap that builds in eroding, the potential is there for storms and potentially some severe weather. Lots of questions as is typical of March set-ups, including the amount of instability that will be in place and where the initiation of the storms will take place. I do want you to track the unfolding scenarios with Tuesdays potential however because it does look somewhat promising for our first severe weather outbreak closer to home, especially later TUE PM into the overnight.

After that storm moves through a gradual cooldown takes place as highs may struggle to reach 50 towards the end of the week.

Joe