What a crazy day. I participated in the Douglas County Severe Weather Symposium for most of the morning and early afternoon. I presented a talk concerning the research I did a few years ago, about what would happen if the tornados that affected the Greensburg, KS region hit the KC Metro area. Using GIS data I came up with some stunning results.

About 200-250 people were there. I promised them a link to see whether or not the modified tornado tracks that occurred would've been in your neighborhood. Take a look at the data

As all this was being juggled, we then had a Severe T/Storm Watch issued for a few of our far southern counties, and then even a couple of warnings for the metro. This sent the various Emergency Managers scrambling to their work duties. I was at the same time talking our folks through a computer reboot for our symbol that was on the bottom of the screen during the T/storms. For the most part...it looks like the hail that did fall in a few areas was generally quarter sized or less. Although farther to the SW, golfball sized hail was reported near Cottonwood Falls, KS (near Emporia). Anyway a crazy weather/job wise day today. Rainfall was pretty moderate and persistent for a few hours. Rainfall amounts were generally in the .10-.50" range with perhaps a couple of higher isolated totals. KCI has had .45" through 7PM with some additional rain on the way, although not to the extent of those later AM and PM totals so far today.

We are going to surge into the warmer air tomorrow AM I think. The warm front is now down towards the Red River area...

It should rapidly be moving northwards towards daybreak tomorrow and zip through the region placing our area firmly in the warm sector tomorrow through Tuesday. One fly in the ointment for Monday is whether or not the warm front which will move north of the area tomorrow, sags back towards N MO Monday as a surface low tries and turns the winds in part of the area more towards the east. This developing area of Low Pressure will intensify Tuesday through the plains and then force the warm air back northwards again. There is a bust potential to the temperatures on Monday.

Regardless we should be back in the warmer & more humid airmass on Tuesday, with dewpoints in the 55-60 range expected. With a Low in the plains and a cold front moving into the area just after peak heating, and whatever cap that builds in eroding, the potential is there for storms and potentially some severe weather. Lots of questions as is typical of March set-ups, including the amount of instability that will be in place and where the initiation of the storms will take place. I do want you to track the unfolding scenarios with Tuesdays potential however because it does look somewhat promising for our first severe weather outbreak closer to home, especially later TUE PM into the overnight.

After that storm moves through a gradual cooldown takes place as highs may struggle to reach 50 towards the end of the week.

Joe

All of a sudden a simple weekend has gotten a bit more complicated.

Don't forget to set your clocks FORWARD one hour tonight as Daylight Saving Time starts officially @ 2AM Sunday morning.

Our weather yesterday sprung towards Spring...today very seasonable for mid-March and tomorrow we may return to some late FEB type weather as clouds will quickly be on the increase and gradually lower and thicken as the day progresses. I think MOST of the daytime is dry but some light showers may develop later tomorrow PM and then expand to a general light rain tomorrow night. This is where it may get complicated, because while temperatures at the surface and up through 5000 feet will initially be way too warm for any snowflakes to make it down to the ground, there is going to be a dry layer of air below the cloud deck and as whatever falls through that column of dry air, it'll evaporate and that process will tend to chill that column of air, enough that perhaps some sort of wintry mix or sleet/flakes can be created. The 18Z NAM and GFS were both reasonably bullish with the amount of precip...take a look at the 18Z runs for total liquid precip...


1st the NAM model valid through 1PM Monday...

Now the GFS model valid through 1PM Monday

So the precip is there...what about the critical temperatures of the column of air aloft...1st let me show you the FORECASTED sounding from 3PM tomorrow off the NAM...

The area that is highlighted, below 840 mbs...or 5000 feet or so is, in some cases as warm as 42 degrees aloft. Notice the left side side (dewpoints) showing dry air. The more spread between the 2 lines the drier the air is. Now notice what happens towards midnight..

The atmosphere is saturated and the column has cooled through evaporation. So it's possible that whatever falls at first is rain then we could see some sort of mixture of rain/sleet then perhaps some flakes will mix in, although even farther up the creation of snowflakes in the clouds may be tough to come by based on this information although the process is going to be easier to create flakes later into the evening.

The wave itself is not that impressive, but perhaps stronger than the models think...is located out towards the Rockies...


Well the 0Z NAM is out...and knocks us with a snowstorm tomorrow night into MON AM (3-6")...I'm not going to jump head first into this yet...but the trends today are certainly snowier...

Joe

Our system is is organizing and intensifying off towards the SE of the metro now...interesting day for weather around these parts as some heavy rainfall with thunder/lightning and some small hail (I'll show some pictures tonight on the news) zipped through the region at 40+ MPH. Rainfall amounts were heavy but the fast movement of the storms kept many areas in the .25"-.75" range. Although there were some higher localized totals. Here is a look at the doppler estimates.

Click on that graphic to make it more readable...the storms, as outlined by the yellow lines are borderline severe towards the east of Columbia...

In terms of ground truth...the Johnson County Stormwater Management folks have a wonderful rain gauge application...take a look at the rainfall through 3:30 or so this afternoon....

Again click on that to make it more readable!


As mentioned the storm is now to the SE of the metro...

Cooler air is moving through now...we maxed out @ 47 @ KCI before the rain started, we're down into the lower 40s now and will fall into the mid 20s tonight. My feeling is that most, if not all, of the precip will be done with by the time the atmosphere is cold enough for snow, as a matter of fact the latest RUC model supports that notion. So while a flake or two are possible after midnight, no accums are expected and the weekend should be brighter but chill with highs SAT/SUN in the 40s.

Our next storm should move into the region sometime TUE PM into WED...warmer air will fight towards us and this will be another dynamic storm system, so the potential of some strong to severe storms in the midwest will be on the increase depending on timing, set-ups, moisture return and instability. Too far out to speculate on the local effects at this point though.

Have a great weekend...

Joe


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Next system due in tomorrow with a rapid increase in cloud cover, lower and thickening tomorrow AM and eventually by lunch time or afterwards producing rainfall, which should be heavier towards the SE of KC...right now I'm looking at .10-.40" rainfall for the metro, with heavier totals to the SE of KC. Here is the latest, hot off the presses model run showing the rainfall potential for tomorrow PM/night.

There may be some thunder associated with that rainfall as well. So any flooding concerns, considering how saturated the soils are would be down closer to the lakes...don't be surprised if some sort of flood watch goes up tomorrow down that way.

The cold front, that's playing a large role in this development will be moving through the area later this evening. Today we made it to 66 @ KCI...my though is that tomorrow 50-55 should do it, and if the rain comes in a bit earlier...50 could be a push. Here is the latest weather map...

Just wonderful today!

Weekend looks OK, there may be a couple of flakes early SAT AM, no accums expected...then we're in the 40s over the weekend. May be a more potenti organized storm on TUE or TUE night...

Joe