Friday, February 18th

This is going to be a fun weekend to follow the weather. As we head towards March, typically we'll start to get more rapid temperature swings, they can be extreme. It was on the 10th that we dropped to -6 @ KCI with some much colder than that...then yesterday we soared to 74 @ KCI for a record high. Another rapid swing is expected over the weekend with a coolish day tomorrow followed by another temperature surge on Sunday. Whether or not we get back into the 70s is still iffy, due to a bit less wind and more potential cloud cover, but it's certainly going to be another warm day out there and the record is 71 set back in 1971 I think.

So first lets get into tomorrow. One look at the satellite picture reveals a couple of things...one is the high clouds developing out to our west...those are streaking our way as we speak. Another is what's going on down towards the southern plains. I've plotted the dewpoints on top of the visible picture and look at the moisture down towards OK...click on that image to make it larger...

Now as this moisture starts streaming in near daybreak tomorrow, and thickens up during the day, scattered showers, maybe even a few rumbles are not out of the question.

Then Sunday AM we should be moving into the warm sector of the next storm...this will send the dewpoints soaring during the PM on Sunday as a strong cold front is barreling through the plains states but still stays to the NW of here till later PM Sunday into Sunday evening. This combination of timing and location of our region in relation to the storm will also allow plenty of warm air to surge in as well...here is the map for SUN @ 6PM off the NAM model...the front should be moving in. I guess it's not out of the question that there could be a few showers, maybe even a couple of rumbles along the front but we will be somewhat capped and there is little moisture above a few thousand feet so the chances are pretty small I think...

As the colder air rushes in, it's not out of the question that we can see a few flakes on MON with highs likely to be only in 30s. So MON AM will be vastly different than SUN PM!

Next week will again be up and down. As this blast moves away, another will be organizing across the Arctic region and spilling into Canada...take a look at the GFS map for next WED @ 6AM. You can see that really cold air building once again up there...

That airmass will be bone-chilling cold. Now it should modify as the plains now is snowfree...however the snow is still on the ground across the upper midwest...so even with the days getting a couple of minutes longer and the local snow all gone now...this airmass will be a brutal one and should it move in as a whole...it will be nasty out there later next week. Also, there will be an increased storm chance as this transition occurs. So that will need to be monitored. Again next week looks to be another great week for following the weather.

Joe