3:45 Update

FOX 4 News will have another special edition starting @ 4PM this afternoon.

During the afternoon we've seen moderate sleet fall through the metro...and now, as expected last night, we're seeing that transition to snow take place. Accumulations thus far have been limited in the metro, but are increasing to the north of KC. Reports indicate upwards of 2"-nearly 3" has fallen already from near St Joe to Plattsburg To Kearney to Leavenworth. This will be the area, up through the IA border that sees the most acumulations. Last night I painted a rough 4-8" swath in this corridor and that looks about right by the time things are said and done.

Closer to KC...amounts will vary widely from about 1/2"-2" of sleet/snow towards the SE side of the metro near the Lees Summit/Pleasant Hill/Harrisonville area to upwards of 3-4" up towards KCI. Again trending higher the farther N/NW you get into the metro.

Roads are slick in many areas north of I-70 now, especially in parts of Platte and Buchanon County so watch out for that. here is a look at regional radar from about 20 minutes ago showing the trends...

We'll be fighting these periods of snow through the evening hours...


Joe

1PM Update...

A combination of rain/sleet and a few flakes are still falling in the metro...with more on the snow side falling once you get from Lansing to KCI to Plattsburg and points northwards. Accums so far have been about .1-.5" Sleet with the snow areas up to about 2", especially the farther north you go. Falls City, NE is reporting heavy snow with 1/4 mile visibilities so some areas from 36 Highway northwards are going to do very good with the snow totals, perhaps in excess of 8" in spots up there.

For the Metro, the amounts will be less however still significant. We're currently looking at 2-5" from the Southside through Platte County. The timing of the transition for the heart of KC will be between 3-5PM we believe. IF this transition happens an hour earlier we may tack on another 1+".

This should wind down towards 10PM, in terms of accumulations.

So it still appears that N MO will get the most out of this...with amounts trailing off the farther south you go.

Joe

This will have to be short and sweet as the new model data has started to roll in and is much wetter for the storm...both for rain as well as frozen precip. Just looking at the newest NAM model, would indicate the potential for over 3" of snow for a large part of the metro, especially on the MO side...some areas of NW MO would have significantly more snowfall...in excess of 6" if this model verifies. Very troubling. Moisture was never going to be a problem for this storm and the latest model data confirms that.

The TYPE of precipitation though is still a question, and the timing of the change over to frozen precip may go a long way to determining how much sleet/snow we get. IF it is pouring down snow in the middle of the afternoon, the potential for over 4" of a heavy wet snow will go up considerably. There also likely will be a somewhat sharp gradient between the big snows and the minor snows. That gradient may lie close to the metro, especially off towards the NE of KC.

This snow will be different than the others, instead of being a nice fluffy (easier to shovel) snow...this one will be the heavy wet, back breaking type of snow to shovel IF enough of it falls. I'm afraid we won't get a good handle on this till later tomorrow AM...but right now the track looks very nice for a heavy swath of snow to be generated somewhere in the viewing area, especially from the metro northwards...

Joe

Friday, February 18th

This is going to be a fun weekend to follow the weather. As we head towards March, typically we'll start to get more rapid temperature swings, they can be extreme. It was on the 10th that we dropped to -6 @ KCI with some much colder than that...then yesterday we soared to 74 @ KCI for a record high. Another rapid swing is expected over the weekend with a coolish day tomorrow followed by another temperature surge on Sunday. Whether or not we get back into the 70s is still iffy, due to a bit less wind and more potential cloud cover, but it's certainly going to be another warm day out there and the record is 71 set back in 1971 I think.

So first lets get into tomorrow. One look at the satellite picture reveals a couple of things...one is the high clouds developing out to our west...those are streaking our way as we speak. Another is what's going on down towards the southern plains. I've plotted the dewpoints on top of the visible picture and look at the moisture down towards OK...click on that image to make it larger...

Now as this moisture starts streaming in near daybreak tomorrow, and thickens up during the day, scattered showers, maybe even a few rumbles are not out of the question.

Then Sunday AM we should be moving into the warm sector of the next storm...this will send the dewpoints soaring during the PM on Sunday as a strong cold front is barreling through the plains states but still stays to the NW of here till later PM Sunday into Sunday evening. This combination of timing and location of our region in relation to the storm will also allow plenty of warm air to surge in as well...here is the map for SUN @ 6PM off the NAM model...the front should be moving in. I guess it's not out of the question that there could be a few showers, maybe even a couple of rumbles along the front but we will be somewhat capped and there is little moisture above a few thousand feet so the chances are pretty small I think...

As the colder air rushes in, it's not out of the question that we can see a few flakes on MON with highs likely to be only in 30s. So MON AM will be vastly different than SUN PM!

Next week will again be up and down. As this blast moves away, another will be organizing across the Arctic region and spilling into Canada...take a look at the GFS map for next WED @ 6AM. You can see that really cold air building once again up there...

That airmass will be bone-chilling cold. Now it should modify as the plains now is snowfree...however the snow is still on the ground across the upper midwest...so even with the days getting a couple of minutes longer and the local snow all gone now...this airmass will be a brutal one and should it move in as a whole...it will be nasty out there later next week. Also, there will be an increased storm chance as this transition occurs. So that will need to be monitored. Again next week looks to be another great week for following the weather.

Joe