Well after a spectacular last couple of days, the air is coming out of our good weather balloon. Today is OK, there are a few sprinkles/light showers in the region, that continue to fall apart in the drier air in the bottom part of the atmosphere, however the changes aloft will start to overwhelm this drier surface air later this evening through lunch tomorrow and we're probably going to see some good soaking rains move into the area and once the rain arrives it may be quite some time before we get 2 straight dry days again as things get much wetter in this part of the country.

The storm that's going to play havoc with is for a couple of days is located in the Western part of the country. It's sitting and spinning around now and will eventually break into a few pieces as it mostly moves towards the NW of here through FRI. What this will do is tonight help to establish a low level jetstream about 5K feet above the ground. This get will be poking right towards us A.M. tonight through daybreak tomorrow. This will result in rising air aloft that will form into t/storms that will move through the area with some locally heavy rainfall. They'll have a tendency to regenerate during the AM tomorrow and continuously move through for a few hours so even tomorrow AM may be wet at times. Typically these things rapidly fade near lunch, of not before and we should dry out for the PM tomorrow afternoon. Highs should be squelched because of this. Probably only in the 60s.

Then Friday will be iffy for a different reason, and it should be noted that there will be plenty of dry hours throughout the next 5 days, so you will be able to do some things outdoors, you'll just have to pick and choose your activities a bit in between bouts of rainfall. The Upper Level Storm will be a bit closer to us, in the Western Plains. This means that the air aloft will continue to support t/storms at times since it will be rising. Also, the atmosphere will be uncapped, so there will be nothing to keep the storms from really forming. There will at times be little disturbances that move our way irritating the airmass that will be warm and humid. So the ingredients are certainly there for additional storms through SAT AM. There may be a break SAT PM-SUN...we'll wait and see about that.

Then another storm will move through the region next TUE...meaning more rainfall, perhaps some severe weather as well.

While random severe weather reports of hail/winds can't be ruled out tonight or FRI...nothing widespread is expected into the weekend. Warm and Humid weather will continue through TUE, before breaking sometime WED perhaps.

Meanwhile folks are starting to buzz about the lack of severe weather this May...it is interesting for sure to see the dramatic differences between last month's records (history setting) achievements and really not much for what is the most active month of the year on average. It will get a bit busier for chasers, there are some nice surface indicators for the folks in the SW Plains states to be alert for for the next couple of days, but at least to me, it seems the next couple of days are isolated type events rather than widespread type things. Next week's storm does look more energetic and potentially more interesting along those lines however. Take a look at the stats through yesterday AM...click to enlarge that image. There were 5 reports yesterday and I believe one today in MD so you can add a few to that May total.

So speaking of April in a way...look at what I just stumbled upon. It's a cool animation of the entire month of April with the Tornado reports as the cyclones moved on through. This is pretty neat!

Have a great rest of the week and I'll see you again on Saturday!

Joe