Wanted to get an updated weather blog to you early again this afternoon. I'm heading out to talk to 2nd graders in Shawnee in the next hour so this will be somewhat short and sweet.

It's going to be pretty interesting to watch the weather int he Plains for the next 12 hours or so as a very dynamic storm moves through the western Plains states as I type this. The energy aloft is now translating to an intensifing storm at the surface. Take a look at the 1PM surface map...

The brownish line represents the DRY LINE which has turned into a significant weather player this season as early as it is. Moisture is streaming into the surfae storm in SW KS now. That moisture axis will remain well west of here this afternoon as the storm rpaidly intensifies over the next 6-12 hours. The storms that will develop will initially be firing off near that dry line up towards the Wichita area then move around in a counter clockwise fashion the area of Low Pressure. So the storms will be moving N then NNW then NW around that low. The whole area will gradually spread this way and move in sometime after 8PM I think with the window for T/Storms continuing through 1AM or so. There should be a quick moving line of rain with this and we may get more than 50-75% of of rain totals from this storm from that line of storms. While I'm expecting off/on rainfall tomorrow, the amounts should be under .50", if not under .25". So most of the rain may need to come tonight.

In terms of severe weather, the higher risks look to be S/SW of the metro. The SPC has really not altered their forecast for the last 36 hours. Take a look.

From a tornadic standpoint, the highest risk appears to be in the moderate area that is outline above...

Areas from Garnett to Neodesha to Joplin down into NE OK need to watch this afternoons/evenings developments closely. With the storms moving NNW into drier here here in the metro, they should weaken somewhat as they approach the region. Here is a more thorough update on the areas most prone to nasty weather as the late afternoon/night go along.

All thoughts for tomorrow are the same, chillier with temps int he 50s and off/on showers. Weekend looks OK, chilly SAT AM but between the wind and the clouds, no frost/freeze is expected  in KC and Sunday, while we may see a mid cloud band move on through, highs should recover into the 70s.

I'm still not convinced the modeling has a good grasp on what happens MON night through next WED...the GFS is chillier and wetter on TUE/WED while the EURO is considerably warmer and drier for TUE...we could be in the 50s or the 70s+. The GFS ensembles agree with the operational run and favor a colder wetter solution. That's what I went with, but I'm not convinced it's right. A front will sag to wards the I-70 corridor in that time frame, how far south it gets into the viewing area will determine the 1) amount of rain and 2) the temperatures. This remains to be seen. So use that long ranger with caution.

Finally, more impressive video coming from the state of Wisconsin over the weekend.  Make a look at a tornado on the ground, then lifting then reforming...pretty darn cool!

Joe