Wanted to get an updated weather blog to you early again this afternoon. I'm heading out to talk to 2nd graders in Shawnee in the next hour so this will be somewhat short and sweet.

It's going to be pretty interesting to watch the weather int he Plains for the next 12 hours or so as a very dynamic storm moves through the western Plains states as I type this. The energy aloft is now translating to an intensifing storm at the surface. Take a look at the 1PM surface map...

The brownish line represents the DRY LINE which has turned into a significant weather player this season as early as it is. Moisture is streaming into the surfae storm in SW KS now. That moisture axis will remain well west of here this afternoon as the storm rpaidly intensifies over the next 6-12 hours. The storms that will develop will initially be firing off near that dry line up towards the Wichita area then move around in a counter clockwise fashion the area of Low Pressure. So the storms will be moving N then NNW then NW around that low. The whole area will gradually spread this way and move in sometime after 8PM I think with the window for T/Storms continuing through 1AM or so. There should be a quick moving line of rain with this and we may get more than 50-75% of of rain totals from this storm from that line of storms. While I'm expecting off/on rainfall tomorrow, the amounts should be under .50", if not under .25". So most of the rain may need to come tonight.

In terms of severe weather, the higher risks look to be S/SW of the metro. The SPC has really not altered their forecast for the last 36 hours. Take a look.

From a tornadic standpoint, the highest risk appears to be in the moderate area that is outline above...

Areas from Garnett to Neodesha to Joplin down into NE OK need to watch this afternoons/evenings developments closely. With the storms moving NNW into drier here here in the metro, they should weaken somewhat as they approach the region. Here is a more thorough update on the areas most prone to nasty weather as the late afternoon/night go along.

All thoughts for tomorrow are the same, chillier with temps int he 50s and off/on showers. Weekend looks OK, chilly SAT AM but between the wind and the clouds, no frost/freeze is expected  in KC and Sunday, while we may see a mid cloud band move on through, highs should recover into the 70s.

I'm still not convinced the modeling has a good grasp on what happens MON night through next WED...the GFS is chillier and wetter on TUE/WED while the EURO is considerably warmer and drier for TUE...we could be in the 50s or the 70s+. The GFS ensembles agree with the operational run and favor a colder wetter solution. That's what I went with, but I'm not convinced it's right. A front will sag to wards the I-70 corridor in that time frame, how far south it gets into the viewing area will determine the 1) amount of rain and 2) the temperatures. This remains to be seen. So use that long ranger with caution.

Finally, more impressive video coming from the state of Wisconsin over the weekend.  Make a look at a tornado on the ground, then lifting then reforming...pretty darn cool!

Joe

What an absolutely beautiful afternoon out there. Highs today have been in the 75-80 range and should be mild again tomorrow, although not as mild due to an increase in clouds in the PM hours especially.

A rather dynamic storm is going to organize in the middle part of the country over the next 24-48 hours. The energy for this storm is just now coming into the western part of the country. It really doesn't look like much now actually. Again this will be changing quite a bit over the next 24 hours.

The surface reflection of this energy will really crank up tomorrow. It'll eventually turn into a 995 mb (29.35") or less surface low in Central KS. So for those who "Feel" the effects of pressure changes tomorrow may not be the greatest day for you. As this system cranks up and spins away in the Plains, anotehr impressive dry line will be created to our west and move towards the region. Dewpoints here should increase, although not get out of hand. Right now the moisture, while there, isn't overly impressive towards the southern Gulf Coastal area until you get right to the coastline, but now the flow is off the Gulf of Mexico, so the moisture will start streaming through TX over the next 12 hours. Here is the 1PM surface map showing the moisture well south into TX...

This moisture will be surging northwards tomorrow, and eventually we'll start to see at least 50+ dewpoints move in. The moisture may be a bit more impressive (at the surface at least) to the west of here. From Emporia to Wichita to Concordia, dewpoints should get to near or above 60. With such a dynamic and strengthening storm system, T/Storms should rapidly fire up along and ahead of the dry line that will be pressing eastwards. The storms, because the system is so strong should move to the N/NNE initially as the whole squall line comes together and presses to the east as well. The higher risk, per SPC of severe weather is to the S/SW of the KC region. I can't rule out some hail/wind here tomorrow evening/night however since the storms will be mature as they move into our area. There is also the potential for a fast shot of some heavy rainfall with the storms as the whole line moves through the region. Here is the latest forecast from the SPC...really no different than what we showed you earlier today.

This storm aloft will form into an upper level LOW that should pass right on top or close by to KC on Friday. This means 1) a lot of gray skies 2) off/on chilly showers that will be rotating around the storm 3) the showers may not affect all 4) colder air will spill in with blustery NW winds behind the storm system on Friday night. What's interesting, and perhaps off the radar for some meteorologists, is the potential for even some funnel clouds in Central or Eastern MO on FRI called Cold Air Funnels. this will depend on whether or not the storm ingests dry air into it's circulation, allowing sunshine to break out from the Lakes eastward on FRI...but that too could be an interesting weather day for the Show Me State.

The air behind the storm will be chilly for about 12-24 hours, until the storm pulls away SAT @ Noon or so...then things will moderate and highs should bounce back to the lower 60s on SAT and near 75 on SUN.

Next week will be rainy at times again with up and down temperatures.

Hey before I leave you...I thought this was kind of cool...take a look!

Joe

Well not exactly the greatest of days in these parts, as a warm front has set up towards the south of the KC area, it's a situation where you have relatively cool east winds at the surface with stronger S winds just above the surface. That creates lift and hence the periods of rain that have moved through the area. There are a couple of weak disturbances that are helping the cause as well. So periods of rain are likely for the next several hours before things try and dry out this evening and overnight.

This warm front will hang around to the south of the region again tomorrow, however the winds aloft above this frontal boundary will be considerably lighter so at this point not a lot of precip is expected tomorrow.

This warm front will lift rapidly northwards SAT AM near daybreak on SAT. Then on SAT we'll be firmly in the warm sector of our next developing storm system in the Rockies. This will, much like last Sunday, allow dewpoints to rise into the 60s and temperatures to soar well into the 80s. However while the moisture will be in place and the instability will be high, the atmosphere should be capped for the day, so aside from perhaps some scattered storms moving through as the warmer air surges in in the early AM SAT, the day looks to be dry, windy and humid here.

Sunday is where things get much more interesting. There are still strong signals that severe weather will be a major issue on Sunday, but there are still questions about who gets pounded. Regardless of the location, one thing is secure, the storm motions will be ridiculously fast, perhaps in the neighborhood of 55-65 MPH on the MO side towards the east of KC. Any downward transfer of the fast movement of the storms, caused by strong winds aloft, easily would create storms capable of 50-70 MPH winds.

The major issue is the timing and location of this development. It seems from the modeling today that the storms would initiate VERY close to KC and then within 1-2 hours be out of our viewing area. That window at this point is between 10AM-3PM. Should the storms fire up on top of us, the higher risk of severe weather would be towards the east of the metro area.

Should the be a 6 hour slower solution, and the storms fire up from Manhattan to Emporia and Wichita, then the metro would be in the thick of things from 4PM-8PM or so.

It's FAR too early to try and get more specific than that. Suffice it to say that there is POTENTIAL for some nasty severe weather, in what is turning into a VERY active 1st part of April for the USA concerning severe thunderstorms.

Chasers that I've talked too, rightfully hate these set-ups, because while the potential is VERY noteworthy, the chasing of said storms is nearly impossible and even if I wasn't working, I wouldn't even bother with this set-up because there is little chance of staying with the storms as they're moving at light speed. You're only hope is to be in the right spot at the right time about 45-90 minutes after the storm is born to see something or to do some limited chasing depending on the road network. Then should this be more of a MO side scenario, that gets to be more problematic as the terrain isn't nearly as flat for observing too many things.

Again lets just wait and observe how things evolve. If your not a fan of severe weather, you want an earlier eruption of the storms when the instability will be less. If this stuff fascinates you you want things to slow down by at least 3-6 hours which is VERY doable considering it's Thursday.

For what's it's worth...here is the SPC forecast issued earlier this AM...

The folks from Colorado State have issued their forecast for the 2011 Hurricane Season, indicating a bigger year for Hurricanes than average. Last year though was very active as well. It's a PDF report, indicating a higher potential, compared to average, of the US Mainland being affected by a major hurricane.

Meanwhile, while moisture from the sky hasn't been to much of an issue here...not too far away, like about 2 states things are pretty dry. As a matter of fact this drought that continues to develop and expand in the southern plains is pretty nasty. Need to watch this because if it's dry there through the rest of the spring and summer and the heat is festering down there, that could easily expand up towards us as the summer evolves...take a look at the latest drought report...

Have a great rest of the day and thanks for stopping by!
 
Joe